商业研究

商业研究

• 世界经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国与中亚五国贸易竞争性、互补性和出口潜力研究

崔登峰，邵伟   

  1. 石河子大学 经济与管理学院，新疆 石河子 832000
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-05 出版日期:2017-03-19
  • 作者简介:崔登峰（1978-），男，河南平顶山人，石河子大学经济与管理学院副教授，研究生导师，管理学博士，研究方向：企业管理、区域经济；邵伟（1992-），男，湖北十堰人，石河子大学经济与管理学院研究生，研究方向为企业管理、区域经济。
  • 基金资助:
    新疆生产建设兵团社科基金一般项目，项目编号：13YB03；新疆生产建设兵团人文社科基地-兵团屯垦戍边研究中心招标项目，项目编号：ZX1501；新疆自治区人文社科基地-公司治理与管理创新研究中心招标项目，项目编号：XJEDU20115c03。

A Study of Trade Competitiveness, Trade Complementarity and Export Trade Potential between China and Central Asia Countries

CUI Deng-feng, SHAO Wei   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
  • Received:2016-12-05 Online:2017-03-19

摘要： 本文以中国与中亚五国2000-2015年各类商品的贸易数据为基础，采用相对贸易优势指数、出口市场相似度指数和双边贸易综合互补性指数，探析中国与中亚五国各类商品贸易的竞争性与互补性，并在此基础上引入人民币实际有效汇率构建贸易引力模型，对中国出口中亚五国贸易影响因素和贸易潜力进行分析。研究发现：中国与中亚五国贸易的各类商品基本不存在竞争，除动植物油、油脂和蜡外，其他各类商品均存在较强的互补性；中国与中亚五国GDP总量、中亚五国对中国贸易依存度、双边是否为WTO 与 SCO 成员国等变量对中国出口起积极作用，而人民币实际有效汇率、距离、伙伴国人口、人均GDP差值等变量则起阻碍作用；中国与乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦的出口贸易尚有较大的市场空间可供开发，出口吉尔吉斯斯坦的贸易潜力基本处于最优，出口塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦贸易潜力属于再造型。

关键词: 中国与中亚五国, 贸易竞争性与互补性, 出口贸易潜力

Abstract: By using SITC goods trade data in 2000-2015 retrieved from China and Central Asia Countries, this paper uses relative trade advantage index, product export similarity index and comprehensive bilateral trade complementary index to analyze competitiveness and complementarity of all kinds of goods trade between China and Central Asia countries, and analyzes trade influence factors and trade potential of China′s export to Central Asia Countries by trade gravitational model that is built by introducing real effective exchange rate of RMB. The results show that there is no competition for all kinds of commodities between China and Central Asia Countries, and there is strong complementarity among all kinds of commodities except animal and vegetable oils (SITC4); the variables of total GDP of China and Central Asian countries, the trade dependence of Central Asia countries on China, whether they are WTO and SCO Member States each other, play a positive role in China′s exports, but the variables of RMB real effective exchange rate, distance, partner population, per capita GDP difference play adverse effects; China′s export trade with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has a larger market space for development, the trade potential of China′s export to Kyrgyzstan is the best, and the trade potential of export to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan belongs to reshaping.

Key words: China and Central Asia Countries, trade competitiveness and complementarity, export trade potential