商业研究

商业研究

• 财经纵横 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于组合赋权的十城市房地产泡沫估算

孙波1，罗志坤2   

  1. 哈尔滨商业大学 1.经济学院；2.基础科学学院，哈尔滨 150028
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-28 出版日期:2017-05-25
  • 作者简介:孙波（1971-），男，黑龙江呼兰人，哈尔滨商业大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：宏观经济理论与政策；罗志坤（1984-），男，哈尔滨人，哈尔滨商业大学基础科学学院讲师，理学博士，研究方向：数理经济分析与建模。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“中国房价的内源矛盾及长效稳定机制构建”，项目编号：13YJA790100；黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“中国房价问题的体制性矛盾及其长效维稳机制构建”，项目编号：12D086。

The Real Estate Bubble Assessment on Ten Cities based on Combined Weighting

SUN Bo1，LUO Zhi-kun2   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028, China; 2. School of Basic Science, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028, China
  • Received:2017-02-28 Online:2017-05-25

摘要： 基于2015年全国十大典型城市房地产历史数据，选取与房地产泡沫紧密相关的6项指标，采用组合赋权法对十城市房地产泡沫程度进行综合评估。结果表明，深圳、上海、北京和南京的泡沫远高于全国水平，重庆、兰州的泡沫程度较低；以房价收入比指标衡量房价泡沫规模，则无论依据国内认可的7.0界值还是国际通行的6.5基准，除重庆基本无泡沫、全国均价有微量泡沫，其他九个城市泡沫规模依次增大，深圳几乎达到国内、国际公认界值的4倍以上。由此看，我国房地产泡沫其性质不仅是结构上的，也是总量上的。

关键词: 组合赋权, 房地产泡沫, 评价方法

Abstract: Based on the real estate historical data of top ten cities of China in 2015, the paper selects six evaluation indexes related to real estate bubble to evaluate the real estate bubble in these ten cities by use of combined weighting method. The results show that Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing and Nanjing have much higher degree of bubble than national bubble level, but Chongqing and Lanzhou have lower bubble degree than national bubble level; if using housing price-income ratio as the indicator to measure housing price bubble size, no matter the value 7.0 of domestic criterion or value 6.5 of international criterion, our conclusions are Chongqing has no bubble, a few bubbles at national level, to other nine cities, the bubble size increases in turn, and Shenzhen is the biggest one, almost more than 4 times above the domestic and international criterion. From the above, the real estate bubble in China is not only in structural, but also in size.

Key words: combined weighting, real estate bubbles, evaluation method