商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

商业财产保险对家庭消费与投资行为的影响 ——基于中国家庭微观调查数据的研究

魏强1，吴庆跃2，张柏杨3   

  1. 1.西南财经大学 统计学院，成都 611130；2.青岛银行博士后科研工作站， 山东 青岛 266000；3.中国人民银行 成都分行，成都 610000
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-16 出版日期:2017-05-25
  • 作者简介:魏强（1987-），男，山东莱芜人，西南财经大学统计学院博士研究生，研究方向：消费经济、互联网经济、供应链管理、金融投资、大数据管理。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社科规划基金项目，项目编号：12YJA630061；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目，项目编号：JBK1507105。

The Influence of Commercial Property Insurance on Household Behavior of Consumption and Investment——A Study based on CHFS

WEI Qiang1, WU Qing-yue2,ZHANG Bai-yang3   

  1. 1. School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130,China；2.Qingdao Bank Post-Doctoral Research Center, Qingdao 266000,China； 3. Chengdu Branch, People′s Bank of China, Chengdu 610000, China
  • Received:2017-02-16 Online:2017-05-25

摘要： 动态优化模型分析和实证研究说明：（1）商业财产保险对家庭投资水平短期和长期影响都为正，但短期影响大于长期影响；对家庭消费水平的短期影响为负，长期影响为正。（2）以低消费水平为基准，家庭缴纳越多的商业财产保险保费，中低消费水平、中高消费水平和高消费水平家庭消费意愿就越强烈，且商业财产保险对中高消费水平家庭的促进作用更加明显；以不愿意承担任何投资风险为基准，家庭缴纳的商业财产保险保费水平越高，家庭进行各种投资的意愿越强烈。因此，扩大商业财产保险覆盖面、提高其保险保障力度，将有助于家庭形成良好的消费和投资预期，进而增加相应支出。

关键词: 商业财产保险, 家庭行为, 多元排序离散选择模型

Abstract: The dynamic optimization model and empirical research show that:(1)commercial property insurance has long-term and short-term positive effect on household investment, but the short- term effect is greater than long-term effect;the short-term effect that the commercial property insurance impose on household consumption is negative while the long-term effect is positive.(2)with the low level consumption as a benchmark, the more household pay for commercial property insurance, the more intense willingness to consumption in households with mid-low consumption, mid-high consumption and high consumption, and the effect on mid-high consumption household is more apparent; with the households that do not want to take any risk as a benchmark, the more household pay for commercial property insurance, the more intense willingness to do various investment. Therefore, enlarging the coverage of commercial property insurance and strengthening insurance guarantee are beneficial for household to form good anticipation of consumption and investment, and then increase expenditure.

Key words: commercial property insurance, household behavior, ordered multivariate choices model