商业研究

商业研究

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“海淘”税改新政对国家税收及居民消费的影响 ——基于CGE模型的模拟分析

张衍斌，李洪心   

  1. 东北财经大学 管理科学与工程学院，辽宁 大连 116025
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-24 出版日期:2017-07-20
  • 作者简介:张衍斌(1980-)，男，济南人，东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院博士研究生，研究方向：电子商务应用、经济政策分析；李洪心(1956-)，女，江西萍乡人，东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：经济系统模型与仿真。
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目，项目编号：L16AGL007；东北财经大学中外联合培养研究生项目资助。

The Impacts of “Cross-border Online Shopping” Tax Policies on Revenues and Consumptions: An Analysis based on CGE Model

ZHANG Yan-bin, LI Hong-xin   

  1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025,China
  • Received:2017-02-24 Online:2017-07-20

摘要： 在跨境贸易和电子商务双重作用下，中国跨境电子商务正处于快速增长时期，以海外网购为主的B2C和C2C增长速度迅猛。目前，对于跨境电商进口税收新政的涵义及所带来的影响引起较大争议，以致该政策被暂缓执行。本文通过构建一般均衡（CGE）模型模拟分析跨境电子商务进口税收新政对政府税收及不同年龄段居民消费的影响，结果显示：跨境电子商务零售进口税收政策的实施增加了政府税收，短期内抑制了居民的海淘行为，但是减少的消费量并没有分流到国内。这种模拟结果印证了“海淘”税改新政对减缓中国经济下行压力、平衡中国外贸、普惠民众是不利的。因此，应进一步优化跨境电子商务零售进口监管模式，尽快出台并实施电子商务配套法律法规，规范跨境电商企业的贸易行为，确保新政的正确执行。

关键词: 跨境电商, 税改新政, 政府税收, 居民消费, CGE模型

Abstract: In the dual role of cross-border trade and e-commerce, China′s cross-border e-commerce is in a period of rapid growth, and growth rate of B2C and C2C based on overseas online shopping is swift and violent. At present, there is great controversy on the implications of new taxes reform policy on cross-border e-commerce and its impact , so that the policy has been suspended. By constructing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper analyzes the impact of new tax policies on cross-border e-commerce import tax on government taxes and consumption of people in different ages. The simulation results show that the implementation of cross-border e-commerce retail import tax policies increased government taxes, and inhabited residents′ overseas online shopping behavior in the short term, but reduced consumption is not diverted into the country. The simulation results show new tax reform policy would be unfavorable to slow Chinese economy downward pressure, balance China′s foreign trade, and benefit citizens. Therefore, we should further optimize the cross-border e-commerce retail import supervision model, promulgate and implement e-commerce supporting laws and regulations as soon as possible to regulate cross-border trade enterprises e-commerce behavior, to ensure the correct implementation of the new policy.

Key words: cross-border e-commerce, new tax reform policy, revenues, consumptions, CGE model