商业研究

商业研究

• 民生经济 • 上一篇    

人口老龄化与居民储蓄动态 ——基于养老保险视角的分析

石阳   

  1. 西北大学 经济管理学院，西安 710069
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-19 出版日期:2017-08-24
  • 作者简介:石阳（1984-），男，西安人，西北大学经济管理学院讲师/博士后，金融学博士，研究方向：养老保险的经济效应、微观金融。
  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后科学基金面上项目，项目编号：2015M580868；陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目，项目编号：15JK1730。

Aging and the Dynamics of Household Savings: An Analysis from the Perspective of Pension

SHI Yang   

  1. School of Economics & Management, Northwest University, Xi′an 710069,China
  • Received:2017-04-19 Online:2017-08-24

摘要： 人口老龄化如何影响居民储蓄，养老保险在其中作用重要。本文将现收现付养老保险纳入老龄化影响居民储蓄的作用机制中，根据世代交叠模型提出老龄化对居民储蓄存在着倒U型影响的命题，并使用中国省际面板数据进行实证验证。分析发现我国正在跨越储蓄由升至降的倒U型的拐点，养老保险制度是导致老龄化与居民储蓄的关系异于生命周期假说的重要原因。因此，随着人口老龄化的加速，中国未来储蓄率很可能持续降低，政府应当及早采取措施。

关键词: 老龄化, 居民储蓄, 养老保险, 拐点

Abstract: Pension plays an important role in determining how aging will influence household saving. Adding PAYG pension into the analytical framework of aging and household savings, this paper puts forward the proposition that aging has an inverted U shaped influence on household savings using OLG model, and makes empirical tests based on Chinese provincial panel data. The empirical results show that: China is just at the turning point stage of the inverted U shaped influence on household savings at this time, and pension system is one of the important reasons why the influence of aging on household savings is different from LCH. Therefore, with the acceleration of population aging, the saving rate of China will probably decrease in the future, so government should take measures as soon as possible.

Key words: aging, household saving, pension, turning point