商业研究

商业研究

• 电子商务 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SD的跨境电子商务风险分析管理模型研究

逯宇铎，孙秀英   

  1. （大连理工大学 管理与经济学部，辽宁 大连 116024）
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-03 出版日期:2017-12-20
  • 作者简介:逯宇铎（1956-），男，黑龙江齐齐哈尔人，大连理工大学管理与经济学部教授，博士生导师，研究方向：跨境电子商务；孙秀英（1976-），女，辽宁普兰店人，大连理工大学管理与经济学部博士研究生， 研究方向：跨境电子商务。

A Study of Cross-border E-commerce Risk Management Model based on the SD Method

LU Yu-duo，SUN Xiu-ying   

  1. (Department of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology，Dalian 116024,China)
  • Received:2017-06-03 Online:2017-12-20

摘要： 跨境电子商务风险管理过程是一个复杂的、具有SD特征的系统工程。本文从供应链角度出发，将跨境电商贸易存在的风险因素分为交易风险、海关通关风险、物流风险及环境风险4类，并利用SD方法分析其演化机理，借助AHP建立风险指标评价体系，并利用FAM完成对风险因素风险等级的静态评价，进一步建立跨境电商风险系统的动态分析模型，将风险管理流程进行集成，对第三方跨境电商平台企业风险管理进行实例仿真试验，实现了静态与动态分析方法的良好融合。

关键词: 跨境电商, 风险管理, 模糊层次分析, 系统动力学

Abstract: The risk management process of cross-border e-commerce is a complex, SD - characteristic system engineering. From the perspective of supply chain, this paper divides the risk factors of cross-border e-commerce trade into 4 categories: transaction risk, customs clearance risk, logistics risk and environmental risk. Based on the SD method, the analysis of the risk evolution mechanism is conducted. Then this paper presents a risk evaluation model based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, where AHP is used to establish the risk evaluation index system and FAM is combined to perform risk rating static assessment. Besides, the paper establishes the dynamic analysis model of cross-border electricity supplier risk system and integrates the risk management process, to carry out the case simulation test for the third party cross-border e-commerce platform enterprise risk management, achieving a good fusion of static and dynamic analysis methods.

Key words: cross-border e-commerce, risk management, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process;system dynamics