关键词: 劳动力迁徙, 生产率, 省际发散, 省际相对趋稳, 人口红利

Abstract: For the new trend of productivity provincial divergence, under the framework of labor migration, this paper carries out mathematical analysis and empirical test according to different regions and stages on the evolution rule of productivity from two aspects: migration mechanism, migration and productivity convergence mechanism. The results show that demographic dividend and labor supplement variation lead to productivity provincial convergence, then comparative stability and significant divergence in the end; accompanied by demographic dividend window is shut, compared with inflows province productivity rising, outflow province labor supply significantly inhibit productivity rising and decline, leading to inter-provincial productivity divergence. At present, unbalanced and insufficient development of contradictions are common and significant. Promoting labor return migration could not only continue demographic dividend effectively, but also extend the provincial productivity relative stabilization period of rapid economic growth, thus avoiding technology and economy provincial divergence and overall economic growth slowing down.

Key words: labor migration, productivity, provincial divergence, provincial comparative stability, demographic dividend