商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

刘震1，史代敏1，牟雯波2   

  1. （1．西南财经大学 统计学院，成都 610074；2.国家统计局四川调查总队，成都 610072）
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-05 出版日期:2020-01-10
  • 作者简介:刘震（1989-），男，山东济宁人，西南财经大学统计学院博士研究生，研究方向：宏观金融理论；史代敏（1965-），男，四川德阳人，西南财经大学统计学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：金融投资、数量经济、应用统计； 牟雯波（1988-），女，黑龙江黑河人，国家统计局四川调查总队，研究方向：宏观经济统计。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究项目，项目编号：16YJC910002。

The Impact of Counter Cyclical Capital Account Regulation on Macroeconomic Stability and Social Welfare Improvement

LIU Zhen1,SHI Dai-min1,MU Wen-bo2   

  1. (1. School of Statistics, Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074,China; 2.Sichuan Survey Team, National Bureau of Statistics, Chengdu 610072,China)
  • Received:2019-08-05 Online:2020-01-10

摘要： 资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论，本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现，采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性，可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知，增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用，增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲，从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以，在资本管制工具的选择上，采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟，用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。

关键词: 资本管制, 宏观经济稳定, 社会福利, 动态随机一般均衡

Abstract: There is a debate on whether capital control can effectively resist external shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.In this paper, the DSGE model of open economy is constructed to study the role of capital control tools such as investment restriction and counter cyclical financial transaction tax in achieving macroeconomic stability and improving social welfare.By comparing the volatility and impulse response function of the main macroeconomic variables under different policy arrangements, it can be found that the use of counter cyclical financial transaction tax as a capital control tool has a comparative advantage in resisting external shocks and maintaining macroeconomic stability.Capital control with investment restrictions promotes the independence of monetary policy, which can focus on the management of domestic economic growth and inflation. Through the welfare analysis under different policy arrangements, it can be seen that increasing the restrictions on investment in foreign assets has a negative effect on the promotion of social welfare, while increasing the capital control of counter cyclical financial transaction tax can reduce the distortion of resource allocation caused by investment restrictions, so as to relax the restrictions on investment in foreign assets and fundamentally improve social welfare.Therefore, in the choice of capital control instruments, the adoption of counter cyclical financial transaction tax may be better than the adoption of investment restrictions. With the maturity of the basic conditions of capital account opening, replacing investment restrictions with financial transaction tax is more in line with the demand of floating exchange rate system and free exchange capital account.

Key words: capital control, macroeconomic stability, social welfare, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium