商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

政策协调、产业结构升级及宏观经济效应分析

刘祖基1，刘希鹏2，王立元3   

  1. (1.上海财经大学 金融学院，上海 200433;2.上海财经大学 信息管理与工程学院， 上海 200433;3.江西中医药大学 中医药与大健康发展研究院，南昌 330004)
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-26 出版日期:2020-04-10
  • 作者简介:刘祖基(1987-)，男，福建宁德人，上海财经大学金融学院博士后研究员，管理学博士，研究方向：计量经济和金融经济；刘希鹏(1991-)，男，福建宁德人，上海财经大学信息管理与工程学院博士研究生，研究方向：非线性计量模型；王立元（1983-），男，湖北黄梅人，江西中医药大学中医药与大健康发展研究院副教授，经济学博士，研究方向：产业经济。
  • 基金资助:
    江西省社会科学规划项目，项目编号：Zdsk201804。

Policy Coordination, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Macroeconomic Effect

LIU Zu-ji1, LIU Xi-peng2,WANG Li-yuan3   

  1. (1. School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China; 2. School of Information Management & Engineering,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China;3.Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine and General Health Development, Jiangxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanchang 330004,China)
  • Received:2019-11-26 Online:2020-04-10

摘要： 不同模式的宏观政策协调不但会对产业结构优化产生差异性影响，也会影响产业结构优化带来的宏观经济效应。本文在新凯恩斯框架下构建理论模型，并基于贝叶斯参数估计和数值模拟分析政策协调对产业结构优化以及宏观经济效应的影响。研究发现：数量型货币政策比价格型货币政策更有利于产业结构优化，收入型财政政策比支出型财政政策更有利于产业结构优化；价格型货币政策和收入型财政政策的政策协调更有利于产业结构优化对消费、就业和产出的促进作用，数量型货币政策和支出型财政政策的政策协调更有利于产业结构优化对通货膨胀的稳定作用；货币政策对产业结构优化升级这一目标与稳定经济波动这一目标存在着Trade Off现象，财政政策对产业结构优化升级这一目标与促进经济增长这一目标存在着Trade Off现象。因此，建议采取货币政策为主、财政政策为辅的宏观经济调控政策，具体操作体现在减息为主结合降低税率水平为辅的政策协调组合来应对经济增速下滑和产业结构升级。

关键词: 财政政策, 货币政策, 产业结构

Abstract: Different models of macroeconomic policy coordination will not only have a different impact on the optimization of industrial structure, but also affect the macroeconomic effect brought by the optimization of industrial structure.This paper constructs a theoretical model under the new Keynesian framework, and analyzes the impact of policy coordination on industrial structure optimization and macroeconomic effects based on Bayesian parameter estimation and numerical simulation.It is found that quantitative monetary policy is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure than price monetary policy, and income fiscal policy is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure than expenditure fiscal policy;the policy coordination between price based monetary policy and income based fiscal policy is more conducive to the promotion of industrial structure optimization to consumption, employment and output, and the coordination of quantitative monetary policy and expenditure fiscal policy is more conducive to the stable effect of industrial structure optimization on inflation;there is a trade off phenomenon between the goal of monetary policy to optimize and upgrade industrial structure and the goal of stabilizing economic fluctuation, and there is a trade off phenomenon between the goal of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and the goal of promoting economic growth by fiscal policy.Therefore, it is suggested to adopt macro-economic regulation and control policies with monetary policy as the main and fiscal policy as the auxiliary. The specific operation is reflected in the policy coordination combination with interest rate reduction as the main and tax rate reduction as the auxiliary to cope with economic growth decline and industrial structure upgrading.

Key words: financial policy, monetary policy, industrial structure