关键词: 铸币税, 通货膨胀, 财政可持续性, 长期协整关系

Abstract: At present, the scale of China′s government fiscal deficit is increasing, and the scale of government debt remains high. As one of the important sources of government funds, seigniorage is of great significance to comprehensively consider the fiscal sustainability of China′s government by incorporating it into the government budget constraint identity.In this paper, the seigniorage is incorporated into the government intertemporal budget identity to construct the index of fiscal sustainability, and the positive correlation between inflation and fiscal sustainability is obtained.Then, using the economic data from 1978 to 2018, this paper empirically tests the long-term co-integration relationship among seigniorage, fiscal sustainability and inflation.The results show that: China′s seigniorage and inflation are on the right side of Laffer curve, that is to say, there is a positive correlation between seigniorage and inflation in the long run; there is a positive effect between fiscal sustainability and inflation; seigniorage is an important source of funds for the government to maintain fiscal sustainability. Therefore, we should strengthen the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, establish a scientific government debt management system, and set up scientific intertemporal financial early warning indicators to prevent financial risks.

Key words: seigniorage, inflation, fiscal sustainability, long-term co- integration relationship