商业研究

商业研究

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中国互联网发展更促进内需还是进口？ ——基于省际面板数据的空间与动态效应分析

马光明1，徐嘉璐2   

  1. （1.中央财经大学 国际经济与贸易学院，北京 102200；2.南开大学 经济学院，天津 300071）
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-14 出版日期:2020-10-19
  • 作者简介:马光明（1982-），男，浙江建德人，中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院副教授，经济学博士，研究方向：国际贸易、世界经济；徐嘉璐（1997-）,女，辽宁瓦房店人，南开大学经济学院硕士研究生，研究方向：国际贸易。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目“新常态下完善我国宏观调控目标体系与宏观调控机制研究”，项目编号：15ZDA009；北京市社会科学基金项目“北京市职住失衡与城乡协调发展关联性研究”，项目编号：19YJC034；中央财经大学一流学科建设项目“建设开放型世界经济背景下中国对外贸易政策研究”资助。

Does China′s Internet Development Promote Domestic Demand or Import？ An Analysis of Spatial and Dynamic Effects based on Provincial Panel Data

MA Guang-ming1，XU Jia-lu2   

  1. (1.School of International Economics and Trade,Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102200,China; 2.School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071,China)
  • Received:2020-06-14 Online:2020-10-19

摘要： 中国互联网的高速发展及“互联网+”概念的推行，为中国经济增长特别是内外贸易规模的扩大提供了强劲动力。一个有趣的问题是：在总需求增长一定的前提下，中国互联网快速发展更多是促进了进口需求还是国内贸易？本文以进口率作为衡量地区需求外向性程度的指标，基于全国31个省市2002-2018年的面板数据，从时间和空间的双重视角考察互联网发展对中国进口率的影响。研究发现，中国近年互联网的发展整体而言显著抑制了各省市进口率，更倾向于促进内需；分地区回归发现该抑制作用在东部省市最为显著，中部次之，西部最弱。以10年为单位的滚动回归发现，随时间推进，互联网对我国进口率的抑制强度逐渐减弱，转变为正向促进作用，且促进效用逐渐增强；以国家铁路行政区域间货物交流作为国内贸易衡量指标的反向稳健性检验也得出了较为一致的结论。在新冠肺炎疫情很可能导致全球贸易衰退的背景下，政府应加强互联网基础设施的建设，为互联网行业、电子商务企业提供良好的政策环境，充分发挥互联网发展对内需的拉动作用。

关键词: 互联网发展, 进口率, 电子商务

Abstract: The rapid development of China′s Internet and the implementation of the concept of “Internet plus” provide strong impetus for China′s economic growth, especially the expansion of the scale of domestic and foreign trade.An interesting question is: under the premise of a certain growth in total demand, does the rapid development of China′s Internet promote import demand or domestic trade?Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2002 to 2018, this paper examines the impact of Internet development on China′s import rate from the perspective of time and space by taking the import rate as an index to measure the degree of export-oriented regional demand.The results show that the development of Internet in China in recent years has significantly inhibited the import rate of provinces and cities, and is more inclined to promote domestic demand;regional regression shows that the inhibitory effect is most significant in eastern provinces, followed by central provinces and western provinces.The 10-year rolling regression shows that, with the development of time, the Internet′s inhibition on China′s import rate gradually weakens, turns into a positive role, and the promotion effect gradually increases;taking the freight exchange between national railway administrative regions as a measure of domestic trade, the reverse robustness test also draws a more consistent conclusion.In the context of COVID-19 that may lead to global trade recession, the government should strengthen the construction of Internet infrastructure, provide a good policy environment for the Internet industry and e-commerce enterprises, and give full play to the role of Internet development in stimulating domestic demand.

Key words: Internet development, import rate, e-commerce