言多必失：产品市场掠夺风险会影响年报前瞻性信息披露吗？

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 信息经济时代公司的前瞻性信息披露行为受到更多因素的影响,在不同产品竞争市场的掠夺风险下做出有利的前瞻性信息披露决策并在产品市场竞争中持续占据优势是一个亟待解决的理论与实践问题。本文以2011-2018年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，采用年报中“公司未来发展的展望”章节字数占比来度量前瞻性信息披露充分程度，探讨产品市场掠夺风险对前瞻性信息披露充分程度的影响。研究发现，掠夺风险越高，公司管理层披露前瞻性信息的意愿越弱，且行业市场竞争程度较高、行业进入壁垒较小时二者的负向相关性得到加强。进一步分析公司特征的影响发现，当公司规模较小、盈利能力较高、财务杠杆较低、产权性质为非国有时，掠夺风险与前瞻性信息披露充分程度之间的关系更强。前瞻性信息披露充分程度影响公司未来市场份额的变化，前瞻性信息披露越充分，未来更有可能受到竞争对手的掠夺。

关键词: 前瞻性信息, 产品市场竞争, 掠夺风险, 专有性成本, 信息披露

Abstract: In the era of information economy, the forward-looking information disclosure behavior of companies is affected by more factors. It is an urgent theoretical and practical problem to make a favorable forward-looking information disclosure decision under the plunder risk of different product competition market and continue to occupy an advantage in the product market competition.Taking A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2011 to 2018 as samples, this paper measures the adequacy of forward-looking information disclosure by using the proportion of words in the “company′s future development outlook” chapter in the annual report, and discusses the impact of product market plunder risk on the adequacy of forward-looking information disclosure.It is found that the higher the risk of plunder, the weaker the willingness of the company′s management to disclose forward-looking information, and the higher the degree of competition in the industry market and the smaller the barriers to entry, the negative correlation between them is strengthened.Further analysis of the impact of corporate characteristics shows that the relationship between plunder risk and the adequacy of forward-looking information disclosure is stronger when the company is small in size, high in profitability, low in financial leverage and non-state in nature of property rights.The adequacy of forward-looking information disclosure affects the change of the company′s market share in the future. The fuller the forward-looking information disclosure is, the more likely it will be plundered by competitors in the future.

Key words: forward-looking information, product market competition, plunder risk, exclusive cost, information disclosure

雷新途，方柳卿. 言多必失：产品市场掠夺风险会影响年报前瞻性信息披露吗？[J]. 商业研究.

LEI Xin-tu,FANG Liu-qing. Does the Risk of Product Market Plunder Affect the Forward-looking Information Disclosure of the Annual Report?[J]. 商业研究.

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