商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

大陆与台湾、港澳地区货币合作动态最优决策分析

姜红艳1，苑西恒2   

  1. 1.北京师范大学 经济与工商管理学院，北京 100875； 2.中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所/中国泛海控股集团有限公司，北京 100005
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-23 出版日期:2017-08-24
  • 作者简介:姜红艳(1987-)，女，山东烟台人，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：资源配置、国际金融；苑西恒(1987-)，男，山东泰安人，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所/中国泛海控股集团有限公司联合培养博士后，研究方向：国际金融。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目，项目编号：15ZDC021。

Dynamic Optimal Decision Analysis of Monetary Cooperation between Mainland China and Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao

JIANG Hong-yan1,YUAN Xi-heng2   

  1. 1. Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences/China Oceanwide, Beijing100005, China
  • Received:2017-03-23 Online:2017-08-24

摘要： 进入21世纪以来，大陆与台湾、内地与港澳的经济联系愈加紧密，但一国四币现状严重阻碍了四地经济的融合与发展。在最优货币区的内生性理论的基础上，本文通过卡尔曼滤波构建状态空间模型考察四地是否具备构建最优货币区的经济基础，发现内地与香港地区、澳门地区存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制，适宜构建最优货币区；台湾与大陆间不存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制，二者在当前阶段不适宜构建最优货币区。

关键词: 两岸四地, 经济周期, 经济冲击, 最优货币区, 内生性理论

Abstract: Since twenty-first Century, the economic ties between mainland and Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao have become closer. However, the current situation of one country′s “four currencies” has seriously hindered the integration and development of the four regions. Based on the theory of optimal currency area, a state space model is used to investigate whether the four places in China have the economic base to construct optimal currency area, finding that there is a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency area between mainland China and Hong Kong area, Macao area, and they are suitable for construction of optimal currency area; there is no a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency between Taiwan area and mainland China and they are not suitable for construction of optimal currency area.

Key words: four sides across the Strait, economic cycle, economic shock, optimum currency area, endogenous theory