关键词: 产业, IO-SDA模型, 碳排放转出, 碳排放转入, 结构分解

Abstract: Reasonable transfer of carbon emissions among the industries is not only the basis for the transformation and upgrading of industry, but also it is the foundation for achieving the industrial carbon emissions reduction targets. In this paper, by defining the industry transfer of carbon emission output and carbon emission input based on the theory of input and output, the structural decomposition model of carbon emission output and carbon emission input is built, and the structural decomposition of carbon emission output and emission input is studied in years 2002/2005/2007/2010/2012 of China, and its dynamic change characteristics and guiding strategy are refined from the perspective of different effects. The results show that: the carbon intensity effect is the main factor of industrial carbon emissions transfer reduction, and the intermediate production technology effect and input scale effect are the primary factors of industrial carbon transfer increase, and the input structure effect promotes carbon emissions output increase and carbon emissions input decrease; the carbon intensity effect has continuous increase reduction effect on carbon transfer, the intermediate production technology effect on carbon emission transfer has a downward trend，and the input scale effect has a continuous inhibition of emission reduction effect，while the input structure effect on carbon emissions input is the first to reduce and then increase, and reduce again, and on carbon emissions output is decreasing year by year; heavy manufacturing industry and service industry are the leading industries of the carbon emission output increases, heavy manufacturing industry and energy industry are the leading industry of the carbon emission input increases, whereas other industries and light manufacturing industry are the major sectors of carbon emissions output and carbon emissions input increase, but the share is relatively less than energy industry, service industry and heavy manufacturing industry;in terms of specific sectors, the PPCN/EHPS/CMWI mainly contribute to the increase of energy industry carbon emissions,MSRP/GSEM/EMEM/NMMP and CI mainly contribute to the increase of heavy manufacturing carbon transfer, PPSM/FMTP/CLII and CTI/WRT are the leading industry of the carbon transfer changes of light manufacturing and services respectively,while MMI and NMMI carbon emissions are leading industries of the other industry sectors.

Key words: industry, IO-SDA model, carbon emission output, carbon emission input, structure decomposition