商业研究

商业研究

• 经济学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑劳动时间波动的中国经济周期波动福利损失估算研究

何林浩   

  1. （上海财经大学 公共经济与管理学院，上海 200439）
  • 收稿日期:2017-12-21 出版日期:2018-04-27
  • 作者简介:何林浩（1989-），男，江苏宿迁人，上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：宏观经济学、城市经济学。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“中国城市发展的金融化趋势及金融风险”，项目编号：NSF7161101095。

Estimation of Welfare Loss of China′s Economic Cycles Considering Fluctuations of Laboring Hours

HE Lin-hao   

  1. （School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200439,China）
  • Received:2017-12-21 Online:2018-04-27

摘要： 政府需要在促增长和抑制经济波动之间进行权衡，正确理解经济周期波动的福利损失对政府制定宏观经济政策具有重要意义。本文对Lucas模型进行了拓展，建立了一个包含劳动时间波动的经济周期成本估算模型，发现经济周期波动的福利损失与其导致的劳动时间跨期波动相关，研究表明，中国的经济周期成本达到0.1598%到0.2437%，如果考虑到部分人承担了总劳动时间波动，估算值将达到0.1844%到2.306%。本文的贡献在于使得经济周期成本的估算脱离风险规避系数的束缚，认为劳动时间的跨期波动也会损害居民福利，并且经济周期波动成本的分析应该着重研究周期波动对资源配置的影响。

关键词: 经济周期成本, 劳动时间波动, 风险厌恶

Abstract: Government needs to balance the growth and economic fluctuations, and the correct understanding of the welfare loss of the economic cycles is of great significance for the government to formulate macroeconomic policies. The paper expands the Lucas model, and establishes an estimation model of economic cycles cost including the fluctuations of laboring hours, finding that the welfare loss of the economic cycles is related to the fluctuations of laboring hours. The costs of economic cycles reach 0.1598% to 0.2437%, if we consider that some people assume the total fluctuations of laboring hours, the estimated value will reach 0.1844% to 2.306%, making the estimation of the costs of economic cycles out of the shackles of the risk aversion coefficient. Therefore, this paper thinks that the inter period fluctuations of laboring hours will also damage residents’ welfare and the analysis of the costs of economic cycles should focus on the impact of the cycles fluctuation on allocation of resources.

Key words: costs of economic cycles, fluctuations of laboring hours, risk aversion