贸易便利化与出口产品多样化
——基于OECD贸易便利化指数TFI的衡量与98个国家样本数据的分析

商业研究

贸易便利化与出口产品多样化 ——基于OECD贸易便利化指数TFI的衡量与98个国家样本数据的分析

涂远芬

（江西财经大学国际经贸学院，南昌 310013）

收稿日期:2018-02-01 出版日期:2018-06-26
作者简介:涂远芬（1973-），女，南昌人，江西财经大学国际经贸学院副教授，经济学博士，研究方向：国际贸易理论与政策。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目，项目编号：71303097，71773042；江西省教育厅人文社科项目，项目编号：JJ17104；江西省教育厅科技项目，项目编号：GJJ150470。

Trade Facilitation and Diversification of Export Products: An Analysis based on OECD′s Trade Facilitation Indicators(TFI) and Sample Data of 98 Countries(Regions)

TU Yuan-fen

(School of International Trade and Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 310013, China)

Received:2018-02-01 Online:2018-06-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过贸易便利化提高贸易效率已成为国际社会的共识，本文利用OECD最新编制的贸易便利化指数（TFI），采用2015年出口至美国的98国96部门的数据，运用负二项回归模型分析贸易便利化对出口多样化的影响。结果表明：贸易便利化对出口产品多样化有显著的促进作用，其中，对农产品出口多样化的作用要强于工业制成品，对高收入国家出口产品多样化影响最大；贸易便利化的不同措施对出口产品多样化的影响程度存在差异，在11种贸易便利化措施中，只有“边境机构的内部合作”的影响不显著，其他10个贸易便利化措施对出口产品多样化均存在显著的促进作用，而“程序性手续”影响最大。实证结果反映了“后关税时代”贸易便利化的重要性，为推动贸易便利化提供了理论支持，对我国贸易便利化建设和外贸转型政策也提供了参考。

关键词: 贸易便利化, 出口多样化, 负二项回归

Abstract: It has become a consensus of the international community to improve trade efficiency through trade facilitation. The paper uses the trade facilitation indicators(TFI) compiled by the OECD and the data of 98 countries(regions) exports to the United States involving 96 sectors in 2015 to analyze the effect of trade facilitation on export diversification with negative binomial regression. The results show that the trade facilitation has a significant impact on the diversification of export products, especially, has a more significant effect on export diversification of agricultural products than manufactured goods, and has the greatest impact on the diversification of export products in high-income countries(regions);the impacts of different measures for trade facilitation on the diversification of export products are different: among the 11 trade facilitation measures, only the “Co-operation internal” coefficient doesn′t pass the significant test, the other 10 trade facilitation measures have significant effects on the diversification of export products, and the impact of “Formalities Procedures” is the greatest. The empirical results indicate the importance of trade facilitation in the “post-tariff era”, provide theoretical support for promoting trade facilitation, and provide reference for China′s trade facilitation construction and transformation of China′s foreign trade policy.

Key words: trade facilitation, export diversification, negative binomial regression

涂远芬. 贸易便利化与出口产品多样化 ——基于OECD贸易便利化指数TFI的衡量与98个国家样本数据的分析[J]. 商业研究.

TU Yuan-fen. Trade Facilitation and Diversification of Export Products: An Analysis based on OECD′s Trade Facilitation Indicators(TFI) and Sample Data of 98 Countries(Regions)[J]. 商业研究.

参考文献

［1］钱学锋,熊平. 中国出口增长的二元边际及其决定因素［J］．经济研究，2010（1）：65-79. ［2］盛斌. WTO《贸易便利化协定》评估及对中国的影响研究［J］．国际贸易，2016（1）：4 - 13. ［3］许统生,李志萌,涂远芬,等. 中国农产品贸易成本的测度［J］．中国农村经济，2012（3）：14-24. ［4］Beverelli C, Neumueller S. The R, Export Diversification Effects of The WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement ［J］． World Development, 2015(76): 293-310. ［5］Bleaney M, Greenaway D, The Impact of Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa ［J］． Journal of Development Economics, 2001, 65(2): 491-500. ［6］Cameron A C, Trivedi P K. Microeconometrics: Methods and Application［M］．Cambridge Press, 2005. ［7］Dennis A, Shepherd B. Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification ［J］． The World Economy, 2011(34): 101-122. ［8］Elhiraika A, Mbate M. Assessing the Determinants of Export Diversification in Africa ［J］． Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2014,14(1):147-162. ［9］Feenstra R C, Kee H L. Export Variety and Country Productivity Estimating the Monopolistic Competition Model with Endogenous Productivity ［J］．Journal of International Economics, 2008, 74(2): 500-518. ［10］Lionel F, Gianluca O, Robert P. The Heterogeneous Effect of Trade Facilitation Measures［R］．WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-03, 2016. ［11］Malik A, Temple J R W. The geography of output volatility ［J］． Journal of Development Economics, 2009, 90(2): 163-178. ［12］Melitz M J, The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity ［J］． Econometrica, 2003(71):1695-1725. ［13］Moise E, Sorescu, S. Trade Facilitation Indicators: The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries’ Trade［R］．OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 144, 2013. ［14］Nordas H K, Pinali E, Geloso Grosso M. Logistics and Time as a Trade Barrier［R］．OECD Trade Policy Paper No.35, 2006. ［15］Persson M, Trade Facilitation and the Extensive Margin ［J］． The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2013(22):658-693. ［16］Zaki C. An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Facilitation Initiative: Econometric Evidence and Global Economic Effects ［J］． World Trade Review, 2014(13): 103-130.