商业研究

商业研究

• 绿色经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国典型城市碳排放特征及峰值预测 ——基于“脱钩”分析与EKC假设的再验证

邱立新，袁赛   

  1. （青岛科技大学 经济与管理学院，山东 青岛 266061）
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-04 出版日期:2018-07-16
  • 作者简介:邱立新（1967-），女，山东济宁人，青岛科技大学经济与管理学院教授，工学博士，研究方向：低碳经济与能源政策；袁赛（1990-），男，山东青岛人，青岛科技大学经济与管理学院研究生，研究方向：能源环境分析与评价。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金面上项目“基于动态KAYA模型的城市低碳化转型发展的政策模拟与路径选择研究”，项目编号：14BJYO18；全国统计科学一般研究项目，项目编号：2016234。

Features of Carbon Emission and Peak Prediction in Typical Chinese Cities: A Revalidation based on “Decoupling” and EKC Hypothesis

QIU Li-xin, YUAN Sai   

  1. (College of Economics and Management, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266061,China)
  • Received:2018-03-04 Online:2018-07-16

摘要： 本文选取北京、天津、保定、青岛、上海、宁波、重庆、广州等低碳试点城市作为研究对象，通过Tapio脱钩模型分析其“十五”至“十二五”期间经济规模与区域碳排放的脱钩状态。结果表明：八个典型城市整体碳强度脱钩状态呈现强脱钩；除北京、青岛在“十二五”期间出现强脱钩外，其他城市碳排放总量呈现弱脱钩，说明碳排放量在经济规模稳定增长的同时也在持续增长，但碳排放增速明显低于经济增速，经济增长方式已从粗放向集约过渡，个别城市仍存在波动性。进一步运用滞后期工具变量法研究经济规模、产业结构等八个影响因素对区域碳排放的作用机制。分析显示中国典型城市区域碳排放EKC假设成立，呈倒“U”型，产业结构的调整与对外贸易的扩大还未起到有效降低区域碳排放的作用；城镇化的推进与能耗结构的优化明显有利于典型城市的碳减排目标的实施，而人口数量与技术创新对碳排放作用短期内不显著；各城市均未越过拐点，预计2023年左右实现峰值目标。

关键词: 典型城市, 区域碳排放, Tapio脱钩模型, 工具变量法

Abstract: Taking Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Chongqing and Guangzhou, the eight low carbon pilot cities as research objects to analyze decoupling state of economic scale and regional carbon emissions in typical cities from “the 10th Five-Year Plan” to “the 12th Five-Year Plan ” through Tapio decoupling model. The results show that the carbon intensity of eight cities decreased year by year (strong decoupling);during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, in addition to Beijing and Qingdao, other cities are weak decoupling, which means that the total amount of carbon emissions continued to increase as the economy grew, but the growth rate is lower than that of economy. Except for some certain cities remain volatile, economic growth has shifted from extensive to intensive. The paper further uses lag phase tool variable method to study the effect mechanism of eight factors, such as economic scale and industrial structure on regional carbon emissions; the carbon emission EKC hypothesis is tenable in typical cities (inverted U-shape),and the adjustment of industrial structure and the expansion of foreign trade have not played an effective role in reducing regional carbon emissions; the promotion of urbanization and optimization of energy consumption structure are obviously beneficial to the carbon emission reduction in typical cities, while the effects of population and technical innovation are not obvious; at present, all cities have not crossed the inflection point and are expected to peak around 2023.

Key words: typical city, regional carbon emissions, Tapio decoupling model, tool variable method