商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国政策性农业保险对农业产出规模的挤出效应 ——基于干预-控制框架DID模型的分析

张卓1，李秉坤2，尹航3   

  1. （1.锦州医科大学 人文与管理学院，辽宁 锦州 121000； 2.哈尔滨商业大学 财政与公共管理学院，哈尔滨 150028； 3.中国人民银行大连市中心支行，辽宁 大连 116001）
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-07 出版日期:2019-08-22
  • 作者简介:张卓（1985-），女，辽宁锦州人，锦州医科大学人文与管理学院讲师，保险学博士，研究方向：农业保险；李秉坤（1965-），男，黑龙江集贤人，哈尔滨商业大学财政与公共管理学院教授，金融学博士，研究方向：财政学；尹航（1989-），男，黑龙江牡丹江人，中国人民银行大连市中心支行，金融学博士，研究方向：宏观经济与货币政策。
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社科基金规划项目“‘扩面、增品、提标’目标框架下辽宁省农业保险政策创新研究”，项目编号：L18DJY007；辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目“高校智库助力辽西两地创建高新产业园区研究”，项目编号：L18CTQ001。

The Crowding Out Effect of Policy Agricultural Insurance on Agricultural Output Scale in China：An Analysis based on DID Model of Intervention-Control Framework

ZHANG Zhuo1, LI Bing-kun2, YIN Hang3   

  1. （1. College of Humanity and Management, Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou 121000, China; 2. Finance and Public Management Institute of Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028, China; 3. Dalian Central Sub-branch, The People′s Bank of China, Dalian 116001, China）
  • Received:2019-03-07 Online:2019-08-22

摘要： 本文利用农业部农村固定观察点微观数据（RCRE），实证分析农户参保决策、政府农险补贴强度等因素对农业产出规模的影响。结果显示，我国政府补贴模式下的农业保险，对农业收入的激励强度明显不足，对农业产出规模存在负向影响；而且农险参保对农业产出的影响依农业种植结构存在典型差异，主要表现为对粮食产出的挤出效应。其原因在于农户家庭福利实现向务工集中，农户生产重心从粮食种植向非粮产业过度转移。这都使得农业保险政策的实施严重偏离了政策的预期目标。因此，需要进一步完善我国农产品特别是粮食产品的价格形成机制，修正城乡产品定价扭曲，增加农户农业经营收入；同时加速探寻政府-保险公司的农险合作模式以提升农险赔付水平，强化农险的收入补偿能力，保证农业保险预期的制度目标的实现。

关键词: 农业保险, DID模型, 政府补贴强度

Abstract: Based on the micro-data of RCRE, this paper analyzes the influence of farmer′s insured decision and government farmer′s subsidy intensity on the scale of agricultural output. The results show that the incentive intensity of agricultural insurance under the government subsidy mode is obviously insufficient, and it has a negative impact on the scale of agricultural output;moreover, there are typical differences in the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural output according to the structure of agricultural planting, which is mainly manifested in the crowding-out effect on grain output.The reason is that farmers′ family welfare has been centralized into migrant workers, and the focus of farmers′ production has been shifted from grain planting to non-grain industry. All these make the implementation of agricultural insurance policy seriously deviate from the expected goal of the policy.Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the price formation mechanism of agricultural products, especially grain products, to correct the distortion of pricing of urban and rural products, and to increase farmers′ agricultural operating income; at the same time, to accelerate the exploration of the government-insurance company agricultural insurance cooperation model to enhance the level of agricultural insurance compensation, strengthen the income compensation ability of agricultural insurance, and guarantee the realization of the expected system objectives of agricultural insurance.

Key words: agricultural insurance;DID model, government subsidy intensity