商业研究

商业研究

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低保制度是近贫人口的福利悬崖吗？ ——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证研究

张栋   

  1. （中国人民大学 公共管理学院，北京 100872）
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-16 出版日期:2020-04-10
  • 作者简介:张栋（1988-），男，济南人，中国人民大学公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：社会救助制度、养老保障。
  • 基金资助:
    中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学（学科）和特色发展引导专项资金”资助。

Is the Minimum Living Standard a Welfare Cliff for the Near Poverty Population? An Empirical Study based on Poverty Vulnerability

ZHANG Dong   

  1. （School of Public Administration and Policy，Renmin University of China，Beijing 100872，China）
  • Received:2019-09-16 Online:2020-04-10

摘要： 未能获得低保救助但贫困脆弱性较强的近贫人口，未来陷入贫困的可能性较大，且与低保家庭相比，还可能存在救助性福利缺失的悬崖效应。本文使用2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据，基于贫困脆弱性视角测量近贫人口的贫困程度，采用倾向得分匹配法探究低保制度是否对低保家庭与近贫人口的贫困脆弱性产生悬崖效应，并分析由悬崖效应引起的救助性福利缺失是否造成近贫人口对低保制度参与权与福利加成的不平等。结果显示：以各地区低保线为基点，近贫人口家庭人均收入高于低保线的部分累加至最低工资线与低保线差值的0.2至0.25倍的区间时，存在显著的悬崖效应与救助性福利缺失，参与权与福利加成方面存在不平等。因此，应将贫困脆弱性纳入到现行低保救助判别机制之中，以此完善对未来陷入贫困可能性的测量与识别；同时将存在救助性福利缺失的近贫人口纳入到低保制度，以此化解悬崖效应引起的不平等。

关键词: 近贫人口, 低保制度, 贫困脆弱性, 悬崖效应

Abstract: The near poverty population who fail to get the minimum living security assistance but are more vulnerable to poverty are more likely to fall into poverty in the future, and there may be a cliff effect of lack of relief welfare compared with the minimum living security families.This paper uses China′s household tracking survey data in 2014, based on the perspective of poverty vulnerability, to measure the poverty level of the near poor population, uses the method of propensity score matching to explore whether the low-income insurance system has a cliff effect on the poverty vulnerability of the near poor population and the low-income families,and analyzes whether the lack of relief welfare caused by cliff effect causes the inequality of participation right and welfare bonus of the poor people.The results show that when the per capita income of the poor families is higher than the minimum security line and the difference between the minimum wage line and the minimum security line is 0.2-0.25 times, there is a significant cliff effect and lack of relief welfare, and there is inequality in the right to participate and the welfare bonus.Therefore, poverty vulnerability should be included in the current discrimination mechanism of subsistence allowances, so as to improve the measurement and identification of the possibility of poverty in the future; at the same time, the near poverty population who lack relief welfare should be included in the subsistence allowances system, so as to resolve the inequality caused by cliff effect.

Key words: near poverty population, minimum living security system, poverty vulnerability, cliff effect