关键词: 一带一路, 进口贸易格局, 进口贸易潜力, 随机前沿引力模型

Abstract: This paper selects 64 countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2000 to 2017 as samples by using stochastic frontier analysis method to study trade efficiency and trade potential between China and countries along the “Belt and Road”. The empirical results show that the scale of China′s import trade is significantly affected by the economic scale, total population, geographical distance and border situation between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”; the non efficiency factors such as the signing of free trade agreements between China and the countries along the belt and road, the amount of foreign direct investment, trade freedom, financial freedom, investment freedom and air transport volume have impacts on China′s import trade in varying degrees.China′s import trade efficiency has gradually improved, but the average trade efficiency is low, and the trade efficiency of different countries and regions is different; in the short run, China′s import trade potential shows polarization, while in the long term, China′s import trade potential still has a huge space to tap. The analysis of the efficiency of China′s import trade has enlightening significance for us to fully tap the short-term and long-term potential of China′s import trade, continue to expand China′s import trade, and adhere to the concept of mutual benefit and win-win.

Key words: Belt and Road, import trade pattern, import trade potential , Random Frontier Gravity Model