商业研究

商业研究

• 财经纵横 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国货物出口与服务贸易关联性 ——基于增加值贸易（TiVA）视角的研究

周升起1，桑丹丹1，范云飞2   

  1. （1．青岛大学 经济学院，山东 青岛 266000；2．东北大学 工商管理学院，沈阳 110000）
  • 收稿日期:2017-07-06 出版日期:2017-12-20
  • 作者简介:周升起（1963-），男，山东郓城人，青岛大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：国际贸易、国际投资；桑丹丹（1991-），女，山东聊城人，青岛大学经济学院研究生，研究方向：国际贸易；范云飞（1990-），女，新疆阿克苏人，东北大学工商管理学院研究生，研究方向：市场差异化。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金项目“中国服务业‘增值贸易’核算及在全球价值链分工中的地位研究”，项目编号：15BGJ036。

The Relevance between China′s Export of Goods and Services Trade: A Study from the Perspective of Trade in Value-Added

ZHOU Sheng-qi1, SANG Dan-dan1,FAN Yun-fei2   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266000,China; 2.School of Business Administration, Northeastern University,Shenyang 110000,China)
  • Received:2017-07-06 Online:2017-12-20

摘要： 制造业与服务业发展的关联性在很大程度上反映于货物贸易与服务贸易之间。基于增加值贸易视角，本文利用世界投入产出表（WIOD）建立VAR模型探究中国货物出口与服务贸易之间关联性，结果表明：货物增加值出口与服务增加值进口、生产性服务业增加值进口之间，制造业增加值出口与生产性服务业增加值进口之间相互促进作用明显。长期来看，非制造业增加值出口与服务业增加值出口、生产性服务业增加值出口之间相互促进作用显著；非生产性服务业增加值出口对货物增加值出口、制造业增加值出口、非制造业增加值出口；货物增加值出口对非生产性服务业增加值进口；生产性服务业增加值进口对非制造业增加值出口促进作用显著。短期来看，货物增加值出口、制造业增加值出口、非制造业增加值出口对非生产性服务业增加值出口促进作用显著。

关键词: 货物出口, 服务贸易, 增加值贸易, WIOD

Abstract: The relevance of development between manufacturing and service industries is largely reflected in the trade in goods and services. From the perspective of trade in value-added, this article uses the world input-output data (WIOD) to establish a VAR model and explores the inter-relatedness of China′s export of goods and services trade. Results show that: The mutual promotion is obvious between value-added exports of goods and value-added imports of services, between value-added exports of goods and value-added imports of productive services, between value-added exports of manufacturing and value-added imports of productive services. In the long term, the promotion is obvious between value-added exports of non-manufacturing and value-added exports of services; between value-added exports of non-manufacturing and value-added exports of productive services; from value-added exports of non-productive services to value-added exports of goods, to value-added exports of manufacturing, to value-added exports of non-manufacturing; from value-added exports of goods to value-added imports of non-productive services;from value-added imports of productive services to value-added exports of non-manufacturing. In the short term,value-added exports of goods, value-added exports of manufacturing and value-added exports of non-manufacturing have a significant promoting effect on value-added exports of non-productive services.

Key words: exports of goods, services trade, trade in value -added, WIOD