Abstract: Based on 2005-2014 panel data of agricultural produce trade between China and “Silk Road Economic Belt” countries, the paper uses the gravity model to analyze and forecast China′s trade flow and potential to them from GDP, population, geographical distance, per capita GDP difference, institutional arrangements and other aspects. Agricultural produce trade volume between China and 39 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt showed a sustained growth trend, and trade deficit also showed an increasing trend, showing a great complementarity in agricultural produce; the total amount of economy and population scale are directly proportional to the volume of bilateral trade, while the distance between countries and the per capita GDP gap have a negative impact on trade; Regional Economic Integration Organization has promoted the development of agricultural produce trade to some extent, among them, the promotion effect of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is obvious, WTO and APEC are less; China′s trade potential with most of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is big, pending further development.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, agricultural produce trade, gravity model, trade potential