Abstract: Exchange rate regime arrangement is crucial for a country′s domestic economic development and international trade income and expenses. From the perspective of social welfare effect, this paper focuses on the middle- short term RMB exchange rate regime choices according to different policy goals by building the exchange rate regime selection models which are based on loss function. The results show that, compared with floating exchange rate regime, Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime can reduce domestic output fluctuation when the policy goal is credible and sustainable, and compared with single Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime, pegged currency basket exchange rate regime can reduce the volatility of domestic output much more;when the policy goal is exchange rate stability, single Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime is the best exchange rate regime.Based on the condition of our country′s trade system and financial market, it is appropriate to maintain the pegged currency basket exchange rate regime.

Key words: exchange rate regime of RMB, policy goal, welfare, loss function