Abstract: This paper builds a new Keynesian DSGE model containing nonferrous metal price fluctuations from the perspective of metal resource security, and uses the quarterly data from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the parameters of the model to analyze the impact of nonferrous metal price fluctuations in the international market on China′s macroeconomy. The empirical results show that the price of nonferrous metals increases by 1%, the fluctuation of economic variables such as investment, money supply, labor demand and wage level is above 2%, and the price increases has an adverse effect on China′s major economic indicators such as GDP, investment and consumption, but the inertia of economic growth in our country can weaken the negative effect caused by the price volatility of nonferrous metals in the short term; our monetary policy cannot effectively solve the impact of the increase of nonferrous metals price, nor can we avoid the input risk caused by the price fluctuations of nonferrous metals. The conclusions above show that metal price fluctuation is closely related to the slowdown of China′s economic growth, so we must consider the safety of nonferrous metal resources from national strategic level.

Key words: nonferrous metals, price fluctuation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, macroeconomy