Abstract: There is no doubt that monetary policy plays an extremely important role in stabilizing economy and promoting economic growth.This paper chooses China′s monthly data of monetary growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, consumer confidence, inflation rate and economic growth rate, and uses TVP-VAR model which can reflect the time-varying characteristics to analyze the time-varying impact of China′s monetary policy on macro-economy under the framework of the expected effect of consumer confidence.From a time-varying perspective, the impact of consumer confidence and monetary policy intermediary indicators on the ultimate goal of monetary policy is time-varying; the role of interest rates and exchange rates in regulating inflation has gradually increased, and the adjustment of economic growth based on monetary growth rate has not weakened, but has become increasingly mature; the expected effect of consumer confidence in monetary policy transmission channels is smooth and can effectively curb inflation and promote economic growth for a long-term.

Key words: consumer confidence, monetary policy, economic fluctuations, TVP-VAR model