Abstract: Financial stability is an important prerequisite for the stable operation of macro-economy. Based on the macro-economic and financial operation data from 2006 to 2017, the financial stability index(FSCI) of China is constructed by using the mixing vector autoregression model(MFVAR) to measure and evaluate the financial stability of China, and the implicit driving factors are analyzed by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR).The results show that: in general, the operation of China′s financial system tendes to be stable, but before the third quarter of 2010, the operation of the financial system fluctuated violently, constantly changing between financial imbalance and financial instability, and then tended to be relatively stable;at the same time, it is also found that the stock market is the main source of financial instability in China, while the banking system is the ballast of maintaining financial stability; further research shows that the total scale of social financing has a great impact on financial stability in the short term, while the amount of money supply has a sustained impact on financial stability in both the short and long term.The meaning of the above conclusions is that it is very important to maintain the financial stability of our country and ensure the stable operation of the stock market. The financial policy should focus on the total scale of social financing in the short term and anchor the money supply in the long term.

Key words: financial stability, MFVAR Model, FSCI, social financing scale, TVP-VAR model