商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

收储制度市场化改革能够稳定玉米价格波动吗？ ——基于双重差分方法的分析

缪书超，钱龙，宋亮   

  1. （南京财经大学 粮食安全与战略研究中心，南京 210046）
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-01 出版日期:2019-09-16
  • 作者简介:缪书超（1990-），男，成都人，南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心博士研究生，研究方向：粮食政策；钱龙（1988-），男，安徽铜陵人，南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心讲师，经济学博士，研究方向：农业经济；宋亮（1985-），男，安徽宿州人，南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心博士研究生，研究方向：粮食政策。
  • 基金资助:
    国家行业公益性专项项目，项目编号：201513004；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目，项目编号：71803077；江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目，项目编号：KYCX18_1279。

Can the Reform of Corn Purchasing and Storage System Stabilize the Fluctuation of Corn Price?An Analysis based on the Difference-in-Differences Method

MIAO Shu-chao, QIAN Long, SONG Liang   

  1. （Center for Food Security and Strategic Studies,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics，Nanjing 210046，China）
  • Received:2019-03-01 Online:2019-09-16

摘要： 玉米收储制度市场化改革效果对其他粮食政策的完善和改革具有重要的借鉴意义。基于2008年10月至2017年12月省级面板月度数据，本文利用双重差分方法估计玉米收储制度市场化改革对玉米价格波动的影响，在剥离了其他因素对价格波动的影响之后，发现玉米收储制度市场化改革可以降低东北三省一区玉米价格波动率0.76个百分点，机理分析表明玉米收储制度市场化改革平衡了东北三省一区的玉米供给与需求，稳定了东北玉米价格波动，而非改革区因未实施相应政策则导致了两个区域价格波动的差异；玉米收储制度市场化改革实施初期可以降低东北三省一区价格波动率1.32个百分点，但这种影响效应随着时间的推移逐渐减弱。

关键词: 玉米, 收储制度市场化改革, 价格波动率, 双重差分

Abstract: The effect of market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system has important reference significance for the improvement and reform of other grain policies. Based on the monthly panel data of the provincial level from October 2008 to December 2017, this paper estimates the impact of the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system on the price fluctuation of maize by using the double difference method.After peeling off the influence of other factors on price fluctuation, it is found that the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system can reduce the volatility of maize price by 0.76 percentage points in three northeastern provinces and one region. The mechanism analysis shows that the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system balances the supply and demand of maize in three provinces and one region of Northeast China, stabilizes the price fluctuation of maize in Northeast China, while the non-reform area has not implemented corresponding policies, which leads to the difference of price fluctuation between two regions;at the initial stage of market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system, the price volatility of three provinces and one region in Northeast China could be reduced by 1.32 percentage points, but this effect gradually weakened with the passage of time.

Key words: maize, market-oriented reform of purchasing and storage ystem, price volatility, difference-in-differences