Abstract: By using SITC goods trade data in 2000-2015 retrieved from China and Central Asia Countries, this paper uses relative trade advantage index, product export similarity index and comprehensive bilateral trade complementary index to analyze competitiveness and complementarity of all kinds of goods trade between China and Central Asia countries, and analyzes trade influence factors and trade potential of China′s export to Central Asia Countries by trade gravitational model that is built by introducing real effective exchange rate of RMB. The results show that there is no competition for all kinds of commodities between China and Central Asia Countries, and there is strong complementarity among all kinds of commodities except animal and vegetable oils (SITC4); the variables of total GDP of China and Central Asian countries, the trade dependence of Central Asia countries on China, whether they are WTO and SCO Member States each other, play a positive role in China′s exports, but the variables of RMB real effective exchange rate, distance, partner population, per capita GDP difference play adverse effects; China′s export trade with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has a larger market space for development, the trade potential of China′s export to Kyrgyzstan is the best, and the trade potential of export to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan belongs to reshaping.

Key words: China and Central Asia Countries, trade competitiveness and complementarity, export trade potential