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Human Capital Structure Evolution and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Provincial Panel Data

CHENG Rui,MA Li-li,CHEN Xuan   

  1. (School of Economic & Management,Northwest University, Xi′an 710127,China)
  • Received:2018-09-17 Online:2019-01-17

Abstract: From the perspective of evolution, this article studies the relationship between the human capital structure upgrading and economic growth. The evolution of human capital structure refers to the gradual dynamic adjustment of the proportion of human capital at all levels in the process of complementary matching and the ultimate realization of the process of advanced evolution, which is embodied in the two characteristics of complementary matching and dynamic evolution of human capital structure.Based on this, this paper constructs the advanced index of human capital structure to represent the evolution degree of human capital structure. Through the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2015, and using the exogenous impact of the enrollment expansion policy of universities in 1999 to construct the instrumental variable and intermediary effect test method, this paper empirically tests the impact of the evolution of human capital structure on economic growth and its mechanism.Research shows that the evolution of human capital structure can achieve economic growth by promoting technological progress, leading to industrial upgrading and urbanization of population agglomeration. Therefore, in order to achieve high-quality development in the new era, local governments should not simply increase the proportion of advanced human capital out of the stage of local economic development, but should pay attention to the complementary matching of different skilled human capital and the dynamic adjustment of the proportion of human capital at different levels on the basis of following the basic laws of economic development and the stage of economic development.

Key words: human capital structure evolution, industrial upgrading, urbanization, economic growth