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Regional Effect of Monetary Policy and Dynamic Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading in China

SHAO Cui-li1,2   

  1. (1. School of Economics and Management BUPT,Beijing 100876,China;2.College of Finance and Accounting,Henan University of Animal Husbandry & Economy, Zhengzhou 450044,China)
  • Received:2019-06-12 Online:2019-11-12

Abstract: Under the background of “new normal”, promoting the optimization and upgrading of China′s industrial structure is also one of the objectives of monetary policy regulation. However, due to the obvious regional differences in China′s economic and social development, the traditional monetary policy is difficult to achieve the expected results. How can monetary policy guide industrial upgrading and take into account the differences in regional economic development? Based on the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017, this paper uses SV-TVP-FAVAR model to test the guidance and regional effect of China′s monetary policy on industrial structure upgrading.The empirical results show that: on the whole, both quantitative and price monetary policies can have an effective impact on the industrial structure of different economic zones, but the regional differences in regulation are large; the expanding price monetary policy tends to have a negative effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure, while the expanding quantitative monetary policy tends to have a positive effect;the effect of quantitative monetary policy on industrial added value is weaker than that of price monetary policy, but no matter what kind of monetary policy is used, it cannot have a long-term and lasting impact on industrial structure; interest rate channel is the most likely cause of regional effect of monetary policy.Therefore, the relevant economic policies to promote the optimization of industrial structure should be combined with the development level of different regions and the differences of policy transmission channels to maximize the effect of monetary policy implementation.

Key words: monetary policy, dynamic effect, regional effect, industrial structure