Abstract: Based on the theory of impression management and text analysis method, this paper studies the value of the excess optimistic tone in the forward-looking information on corporate financial distress prediction. The study finds that the higher the degree of excess optimistic tone in the forward-looking information, the lower the probability of a financial distress in the future, and the inconsistency of forward-looking information would weaken the negative correlation. Further distinguishing the company′s external information environment, it is found that when the analyst′s attention is lower and the product market is higher competitive, the relationship between excess optimism tone and financial distress prediction is stronger, but the negative adjustment effect of information inconsistency is also stronger. This study expands and enriches the related research on the tone of text information, and provides empirical evidence for behavioral finance research.

Key words: excess optimistic tone, inconsistency of information, financial distress prediction