Abstract: The measurement of economic uncertainty is a complex and difficult process. In this paper, the factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR-SV) model is used for the first time. According to the national conditions, 158 macroeconomic indicators are used to obtain the macroeconomic uncertainty index; based on the extended C-D production function and panel data of 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, this paper takes economic uncertainty index and scientific and technological progress into the model from the perspective of endogenous economic growth, and measures the impact of economic uncertainty on economic growth. The results show that the macroeconomic uncertainty index is an anti-economic cycle variable, the measurement results are stable, and it can quickly identify the “black swan” event whose probability is less than 10%, which is consistent with the actual economic activities;the index of macroeconomic uncertainty has a negative impact on economic growth, and its lagging effect is obviously weakened, which is due to the implementation of relevant government policies. Stock uncertainty of a single category index will reduce the actual impact of macroeconomic uncertainty, therefore, the use of rich data environment to measure uncertainty has certain advantages.

Key words: macroecnomic uncertainty, endogenous economic growth；FAVAR-SV model, new C-D Production Function