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International Dynamic Spillovers of Economic Policy Uncertainty: An Empirical Study based on Directional Spillovers Model

XIANG Gu-yue1,ZHOU Xian-ping1, TAN Ben-yan2   

  1. (1. School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073,China; 2. School of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)
  • Received:2018-10-23 Online:2019-03-16

Abstract: Based on the Baker et al.(2016) index of policy uncertainty(BBD Index) and Directional Spillovers proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz(2012), this paper presents a static analysis, comparative static analysis and dynamic analysis of the international spillovers of economic policy uncertainty among economies. Static analysis results show that in the whole sample period, more than one fifth of the changes in economic policy uncertainty come from the spillover effect of other economies;comparative static analysis shows the total spillover effect gradually strengthens, with 18.09% in the pre-financial crisis period, 29.81% in the financial crisis period and 33.58% in the economic recovery period;the results of dynamic analysis show that the scale of the spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty may be related to the domestic political cycle and monetary policy cycle, and the Mead Conflict may be one of the main transmission channels; The United States, Europe and Japan should be responsible for most of the spillovers, and China is one of the greatest victims. The policy enlightenment holds that we should push forward the comprehensive and deepening reform, accelerate the reform of floating exchange rate system and improve the independence of monetary policy.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, dynamic spillover effect, directional spillovers, Mead Conflict