Abstract: Based on the micro-data of RCRE, this paper analyzes the influence of farmer′s insured decision and government farmer′s subsidy intensity on the scale of agricultural output. The results show that the incentive intensity of agricultural insurance under the government subsidy mode is obviously insufficient, and it has a negative impact on the scale of agricultural output;moreover, there are typical differences in the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural output according to the structure of agricultural planting, which is mainly manifested in the crowding-out effect on grain output.The reason is that farmers′ family welfare has been centralized into migrant workers, and the focus of farmers′ production has been shifted from grain planting to non-grain industry. All these make the implementation of agricultural insurance policy seriously deviate from the expected goal of the policy.Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the price formation mechanism of agricultural products, especially grain products, to correct the distortion of pricing of urban and rural products, and to increase farmers′ agricultural operating income; at the same time, to accelerate the exploration of the government-insurance company agricultural insurance cooperation model to enhance the level of agricultural insurance compensation, strengthen the income compensation ability of agricultural insurance, and guarantee the realization of the expected system objectives of agricultural insurance.

Key words: agricultural insurance;DID model, government subsidy intensity