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An Analysis of RMB′s Influence in the “Belt and Road” Currency Circle: Information Spillover Effect and Its Channel of Action

ZHANG Ying-ying   

  1. (School of International Economics and Trade,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025,China)
  • Received:2019-08-01 Online:2020-01-10

Abstract: The paper uses spillover index method to quantitatively measure exchange rate spillover effect and its dynamic evolution between the RMB and the main currencies along the “Belt and Road”,and uses the method of systematic GMM to explore the channels of the net spillover effect of the RMB exchange rate.The study found that: in recent years, exchange rate spillover effect between RMB and the main currencies along the “Belt and Road” has increased in the fluctuation. With the in-depth implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the net spillover effect of the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased, and its influence in the region has gradually increased.In the “Belt and Road” area, the RMB has strong influence in Asia and Africa, and the net spillover effect on the United Arab Emirates d′am and Angola Kwanza has exceeded the major international currencies such as the euro, the pound and the yen.In terms of the channel of the net spillover effect, the “Belt and Road” countries benefit from China′s trade value added ratio, while the RMB exchange rate market reform, the third party market trade competition, the global commodity price index and the global risk index are not good for them.Therefore, China should strengthen the leading capacity and commodity competitiveness of China′s “Belt and Road” regional value chain, accelerate the construction of offshore RMB financial market in the “Belt and Road” area, and strengthen the regional risk management of RMB exchange rate.

Key words: RMB exchange rate;“Belt and Road”;regional influence, spillover effect