商业研究

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Policy Coordination, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Macroeconomic Effect

LIU Zu-ji1, LIU Xi-peng2,WANG Li-yuan3   

  1. (1. School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China; 2. School of Information Management & Engineering,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China;3.Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine and General Health Development, Jiangxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanchang 330004,China)
  • Received:2019-11-26 Online:2020-04-10

Abstract: Different models of macroeconomic policy coordination will not only have a different impact on the optimization of industrial structure, but also affect the macroeconomic effect brought by the optimization of industrial structure.This paper constructs a theoretical model under the new Keynesian framework, and analyzes the impact of policy coordination on industrial structure optimization and macroeconomic effects based on Bayesian parameter estimation and numerical simulation.It is found that quantitative monetary policy is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure than price monetary policy, and income fiscal policy is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure than expenditure fiscal policy;the policy coordination between price based monetary policy and income based fiscal policy is more conducive to the promotion of industrial structure optimization to consumption, employment and output, and the coordination of quantitative monetary policy and expenditure fiscal policy is more conducive to the stable effect of industrial structure optimization on inflation;there is a trade off phenomenon between the goal of monetary policy to optimize and upgrade industrial structure and the goal of stabilizing economic fluctuation, and there is a trade off phenomenon between the goal of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and the goal of promoting economic growth by fiscal policy.Therefore, it is suggested to adopt macro-economic regulation and control policies with monetary policy as the main and fiscal policy as the auxiliary. The specific operation is reflected in the policy coordination combination with interest rate reduction as the main and tax rate reduction as the auxiliary to cope with economic growth decline and industrial structure upgrading.

Key words: financial policy, monetary policy, industrial structure