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The Dynamic Relationship among Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Stability and Economic Volatility:An Analysis based on China′s 2007-2019 Data

LU Jin, WANG Jin-tao   

  1. (School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)
  • Received:2019-11-07 Online:2020-05-12

Abstract: Based on the perspective of macroeconomic evolution, this paper constructs an analysis framework of economic policy uncertainty, financial stability and economic volatility, and uses TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the linkage effect and asymmetry among them.The results show that before 2012, the economic policy uncertainty will aggravate the economic volatility in the medium and long term, and the change of financial stability will also promote the economic volatility;after 2012, the economic policy uncertainty aggravates the economic volatility in the short and medium term, and the financial stability and economic volatility show the interactive characteristics;before 2015, the trend of increasing or slowing down of economic policy uncertainty reduced financial stability in the short term; after 2015, the trend of increasing or slowing down of economic policy uncertainty reduced financial stability in the medium and long term, and the trend of slowing down of economic policy uncertainty is conducive to maintaining financial stability.The decrease of financial stability will aggravate the economic volatility in the short and medium term, and the enhancement of financial stability will help to stabilize the economic volatility in the short and medium term.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, financial stability, economic volatility, TVP-SV-VAR