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A Study of the Status of “Currency Anchor” of RMB and Its Influence Factors: An Empirical Analysis based on the Countries along “The Belt and Road”

ZHAO Hui,ZHANG Nong   

  1. (International College,Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China)
  • Received:2019-12-13 Online:2020-05-12

Abstract: This paper extends the classical “currency anchor” model proposed by Frankel and Wei(1994,2007) to the time-varying parameter state space model, analyzes the position of the “currency anchor” in the areas along“The Belt and Road” from influence scope and influence level, and measures the factors that affect RMB′s “monetary anchor” function based on the results of the time-varying parameter state space model.The results show that the “monetary anchor” position of the RMB has been significantly improved in“The Belt and Road”and the other countries, but there are obvious regional differences:the impact in the “Southeast Asian”, “South Asian” and “Commonwealth” is relatively large, and the impact is relatively weak in Western Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia;the factors that influence the role of RMB as a “currency anchor” mainly include differences in political stability, externalities of trade networks, real GDP and the inflation history of host country,among them, the externality of trade network has a significant role in promoting RMB′s “currency anchor”, the role of economic scale is relatively small, while the inflation history of host country has restrained RMB′s role as a “currency anchor”.China should actively promote the control of commodity pricing rights, consolidate the cooperation with major trading partners, and promote the market-oriented reform of exchange rate system, so as to enhance the position of RMB as a “currency anchor” and consolidate the foundation of RMB internationalization.

Key words: internationalization of RMB, currency anchor, “The Belt and Road”, influence factors