Abstract: The decision-making basis of farmers′ land transfer is its corresponding welfare effect on farmers. In order to optimize farmers′ land transfer decision-making and improve their welfare level, based on the micro survey data of Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIP) 2013 database, this paper uses SNEOP model to effectively identify the influence factors of farmers′ land transfer decision-making behavior, and then constructs dose-response function model of generalized propensity score matching method to investigate the welfare effects and differences of land transfer and land transfer on farmers′ families. The research conclusion can effectively match the farmers′ own endowment condition with the welfare effect of rural land transfer, thus making the decision of Pareto improvement made by both sides of rural land transfer trade according to each other′s heterogeneity of source conditions has guiding significance; at the same time, it is instructive for government management departments and other stakeholders to guide and manage rural land transfer.

Key words: rural land circulation, influence factors, welfare effect, Semi-nonparametric Extended Ordered Probit (SNEOP) model, Generalized Propensity Score Matching(GPS)model, Dose-response