基于资产负债分析的地方政府债务风险测算研究

商业研究

基于资产负债分析的地方政府债务风险测算研究

赵仑，杨扬

（首都经济贸易大学财税学院，北京 100070）

收稿日期:2019-02-10 出版日期:2019-05-25
作者简介:赵仑（1953-），男，北京人，首都经济贸易大学财税学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：财政政策、预算体制改革、资产评估；杨扬（1986-），男，北京人，首都经济贸易大学财税学院博士研究生，研究方向：财政政策、预算体制改革。
基金资助:
教育部规划基金项目“新时代中期预算脆弱度分析与可持续路径选择研究”，项目编号：18YJA790044。

Research on Local Government Debt Risk Measurement in China based on Asset and Liability Analysis

ZHAO Lun,YANG Yang

(College of Finance and Taxation,Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070,China)

Received:2019-02-10 Online:2019-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 地方政府控制的可用于偿还债务的资产及其收益是地方政府债务得以顺利清偿的保证，地方政府债务风险呈现了资不抵债和无力支付情况而发生债务违约的可能性。本文对2010-2017年我国地方政府债务风险测算和评估的结果表明，地方政府资产负债杠杆率在上升、可偿债资产的收益率在下滑；在计入养老金缺口情况下，借款融资结构变化对地方政府债务风险存在显著影响。因此，只有地方政府实际承担的养老金缺口现值少于24万亿元，地方政府债务风险才能处于可控的范围之内。

关键词: 地方政府债务风险, 可偿债资产, 夏普比率, 借款融资结构, 或有负债

Abstract: The assets and their benefits controlled by local governments that can be used to defray the debts are the guarantees for ensuring the repayment of local government debts. The local government debt risks emerge as the possibility of debt defaults due to insolvency. The results of the calculation of China′s local government debt risk in 2010-2017 show that the local government′s asset-liability leverage ratio is rising, and the return on repayable assets is declining;when the pension gap is taken into account, the change of financial structure of the local governments has a significant impact on the debt risk. Therefore, only if the present value of the pension gap is no more than 24 trillion RMB which the local governments actually undertaken, the local government debt risks can be safe and controllable.

Key words: local government debt risk, repayable assets, Sharpe Ratio;loan financing structure , contingent liabilities

赵仑，杨扬. 基于资产负债分析的地方政府债务风险测算研究[J]. 商业研究.

ZHAO Lun,YANG Yang. Research on Local Government Debt Risk Measurement in China based on Asset and Liability Analysis[J]. 商业研究.

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