Abstract: Making use of foreign capital effectively, playing advantage of human capital and optimizing export trade structure are important problems in the adjustment of China′s opening-up pattern. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2015, this paper analyzes the influence of foreign capital inflows and human capital on China′s export trade structure by using the threshold regression model. Research finds that foreign capital inflows will effectively promote the upgrading of China′s export trade structure in the short term, but in the long run it will have a negative effect; high-tech human capital plays an important role in the upgrading of China′s export trade structure, but the role of human capital structure is not ideal; the combination of foreign capital inflows and high-tech human capital has a positive effect on the export trade structure, and thus has a good suitability; the threshold effect of openness is significant, the foreign capital inflows is more liable to produce a positive effect on export trade structure while it is less easily affected by foreign capital inflows and human capital heterogeneity. Therefore, in terms of foreign capital use and cooperation with foreign-funded enterprises, we should balance the foreign capital distribution in industries, and screen out the degree of fit between foreign capital type and regional development to push the upgrading of labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries. China should fully recognize the key role of heterogeneous structure of human capital in trade structure and increase the investment in human capital to improve the skill level of labor force, making China′s export trade shift to the innovative development model relying on high-tech personnel to promote the upgrading of trade structure.

Key words: foreign capital inflows, human capital heterogeneity, export structure, dynamic panel, threshold regression