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The Identification of China′s Optimal Monetary Policy Proxy Variable:An Analysis based on Monetary Policy Response and Transmission

WU Peng-fei1,DAI Guo-qiang2   

  1. (1.School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433,China; 2.Business School,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433,China)
  • Received:2019-05-28 Online:2019-11-12

Abstract: Choosing an effective proxy variable to represent the monetary policy position of the central bank is the premise and basis for the research of monetary policy.On the basis of SVAR model, this paper compares six policy variables from two aspects of monetary policy′s response mode and transmission effect to real economic change, in order to identify the optimal agent variable of monetary policy in China.The results show that: (1) the quantitative variable is still the main target of the central bank in macro-control, in which the RMB loan scale meets all conditions and is the optimal agent variable of monetary policy.(2) the price variable can make a significant response to the inflation shock, but not to the output shock; the change of the price variable has no significant impact on the inflation, but has a significant impact on the output.It can be seen that the Central Bank of China does not take the interest rate index as the main means of regulating and controlling the economy, but the change of interest rate can affect the actual output; there is a certain practical basis for the “13th Five Year Plan” to promote the transformation of monetary policy from quantity oriented to price oriented.

Key words: Monetary Policy Proxy Variable;SVAR, monetary policy response and transmission