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16 September 2019, Volume 61 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Research on Consumer Preference Difference based on Uncertain Regret Preference Model LIU Xue-min1, GE Jiao-ju1, JIN Guo-qian2 2019, 61(9): 1-10.  Abstract ( 131 )   Abstract：Consumers′ subjective intentions before purchasing often contradict their actual decision-making behavior, that is, there are differences between stated preference(SP) and revealed preference(RP).At present, research on SP and RP mostly focuses on their consistency and complementarity, but research on their differences is less, and ignores the impact of consumer preference uncertainty.Based on this, this paper proposes an uncertain regret preference model, which measures the difference between SP and RP by the degree of satisfaction or regret of consumers after buying behavior.The results show that uncertainties such as brand recognition, design recognition, performance recognition and reference group, consumer characteristics such as gender, education and income, and product attributes such as price, product set and replacement time have significant effects on consumer preference. In addition, there are significant systematic differences in SP and RP between male and female samples. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can the Reform of Corn Purchasing and Storage System Stabilize the Fluctuation of Corn Price?An Analysis based on the Difference-in-Differences Method MIAO Shu-chao, QIAN Long, SONG Liang 2019, 61(9): 11-19.  Abstract ( 75 )   The effect of market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system has important reference significance for the improvement and reform of other grain policies. Based on the monthly panel data of the provincial level from October 2008 to December 2017, this paper estimates the impact of the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system on the price fluctuation of maize by using the double difference method.After peeling off the influence of other factors on price fluctuation, it is found that the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system can reduce the volatility of maize price by 0.76 percentage points in three northeastern provinces and one region. The mechanism analysis shows that the market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system balances the supply and demand of maize in three provinces and one region of Northeast China, stabilizes the price fluctuation of maize in Northeast China, while the non-reform area has not implemented corresponding policies, which leads to the difference of price fluctuation between two regions;at the initial stage of market-oriented reform of maize purchasing and storage system, the price volatility of three provinces and one region in Northeast China could be reduced by 1.32 percentage points, but this effect gradually weakened with the passage of time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Heterogeneous Enterprises, Intermediate Trade Liberalization and Domestic Value Added to Exports YUE Wen 2019, 61(9): 20-28.  Abstract ( 89 )   Based on the micro-data of Chinese enterprises, this paper constructs a theoretical model including enterprise heterogeneity, import intermediate input and export domestic value-added rate(DVAR), analyses the mechanism of the effect of trade liberalization of intermediate inputs on enterprises′ export domestic value-added rate,and examines the impact of intermediary trade liberalization on Chinese enterprises′ DVAR by measuring the input tariffs and DVAR of intermediaries at enterprise level.After considering the related endogenous problems, the empirical results show that trade liberalization of intermediate inputs is beneficial to the improvement of DVAR of Chinese enterprises, and the impact of trade liberalization of intermediate products on DVAR of enterprises of different regions and ownership types is different. The conclusion of this paper provides a new perspective for re-understanding the liberalization of intermediate trade from the perspective of domestic added value of enterprises′exports. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Regional Housing Price, Labor Flow and Real Economy Agglomeration: An Analysis based on Panel Data of 30 Provinces and Municipalities（Region） in China from 2000 to 2015 QIAO Bin, ZHANG Rui, CHEN Yong-kang 2019, 61(9): 29-39.  Abstract ( 107 )   Abstract：By introducing consumer preference heterogeneity and skill heterogeneity into the new economic geography model including regional housing prices, this paper analyses the mechanism of the impact of housing prices on labor mobility and real economy.The results show that, under the influence of heterogeneous labor force, the rise of regional relative housing prices leads to the outflow of low-skilled labor force and the agglomeration of high-skilled labor force,moreover, the objective and livable conditions of the region are attractive to the inflow of labor force, thus changing the structure of regional labor force and inducing the change of real economy agglomeration;relative housing price rise restrains the inflow of low-skilled labor force and promotes the agglomeration of high-skilled labor force,regional livable conditions have the function of “automatic stabilizer”;considering the inter-regional spillover effect, the short-term rise of regional relative housing prices has less impact on the real economy, which is conducive to the agglomeration effect of the real economy; in the long run, the rise of regional relative housing prices has a greater inhibitory effect on the real economy, which increases the risk of “hollowing out” of the industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Government Efficiency Competition and Enterprise Total Factor Productivity：An Analysis based on China Industrial Enterprise Database Data from 1998 to 2007 YUAN Kai-hua1,GAO Xiang2 2019, 61(9): 40-51.  Abstract ( 103 )   Based on the analysis of the mechanism of government efficiency competition affecting enterprise total factor productivity and the data of China Industrial Enterprise Database from 1998 to 2007, a multi-dimensional system for evaluating government efficiency is constructed. Using Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to quantify the government efficiency of Chinese provincial governments, this paper empirically examines the impact of government efficiency competition on enterprise total factor productivity. It is found that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between government efficiency and enterprise total factor productivity, that is, government efficiency competition inhibits the improvement of enterprise total factor productivity through “governance cost effect” in the early stage, and the improvement of government efficiency will promote the progress of enterprise total factor productivity through “market allocation effect”.The influence of government efficiency competition on enterprise total factor productivity shows significant difference after distinguishing the property of enterprise ownership, technology level and region. Therefore, in the context of promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, the government should continue to strive to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, improve the efficiency of the government, and promote the competitiveness of domestic enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Leverage of Departments and Economic Fluctuations in China: Research based on DSGE Model WU Jian-luan1, ZHAO Chun-yan1, NAN Shi-jing2 2019, 61(9): 52-61.  Abstract ( 73 )   By introducing credit constraints from family and enterprise sectors into a DSGE model involving enterprises, banks and households, this paper studies the impact of mortgage rate shocks in different sectors on China′s economic fluctuations, and the impact of technology shocks on economic fluctuations under different levels of mortgage rates.The results show that the positive impact of home mortgage rate has a positive impact on the loan, consumption, housing demand and housing price of borrowing households, and has a negative impact on the housing demand of investment, output and saving households.The positive impact of enterprise loan mortgage rate has a positive impact on enterprise loans, investment, output, wages, labor supply and consumption of two types of households. In the face of the same technological shocks, under the higher mortgage rate of household mortgages, consumption has increased significantly, while output, investment and housing prices have increased slightly.In the face of the same technological shocks, under the higher mortgage rate of corporate loans, the increase of output, investment and consumption is larger, while the increase of house prices is smaller.Based on the above conclusions, we should pay close attention to the abnormal growth of household loans, be vigilant about the impact of changes in household mortgage leverage on economic fluctuations, differentiate credit mortgage policy, guide more funds to people′s livelihood, and promote the optimal allocation of resources. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Relationship between Technology Linkage and Industrial Transfer of Mega-urban Agglomeration:An Analysis of Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei WEN Yu-yuan, ZHANG Bo-lun 2019, 61(9): 62-72.  Abstract ( 74 )   Abstract：The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become a major national strategy. The industrial transfer in the process of its implementation is an important policy measure to optimize the industrial spatial distribution.This paper establishes a push-pull model of industrial transfer that incorporates technology-related factors. Using the data of 2003-2012 China Industrial Enterprise Database, the paper measures the relationship between industries through technology-related degree, and explores the impact of technology-related on industrial transfer of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mega-urban agglomeration.The results show that, under the condition of controlling the industrial and regional characteristics, technological correlation is positively correlated with the overall transfer of manufacturing industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mega-urban agglomeration, and it can promote the industrial transfer of labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries to varying degrees,but there are some differences between the same region. The above findings have important policy implications for Beijing-Tianjin - Hebei to coordinate industrial transfer and undertaking. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial Linkage Network Structure of China′s Forestry Total Factor Productivity. and Its Influence Factors GUAN Jun, CAO Yu-kun, ZHU Zhen-feng. 2019, 61(9): 73-81.  Abstract ( 79 )   Abstract：Based on the DEA-Malmquist model and provincial panel dataset(2005-2016), this paper measured the provincial forestry total factor productivity(TFP) in China, and identified the spatial spillover relationships between provinces by the VAR Granger causality test. On this basis, in the framework of social network analysis, the structural characteristics of spatial correlation network and its effects are analyzed. The results showed that, the spatial spillover effect of forestry TFP was commonly existed in China, and there was multiple superposition in the inter-provincial spatial forestry TFP spillovers;the correlation network presented a trend of multi-core development, and the trans-provincial efficiency spillover showed an obvious gradient feature; the gap between provinces contributed to the expansion of forestry market′s boundaries, besides, similar innovation level and financial development level can promote technology exchange and cooperation between provinces,and the “Matthew effect” of forestry growth. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the spatial disequilibrium pattern of China′s forestry production efficiency. Through macro-control and market system construction, favorable conditions should be created for the cross-regional flow and efficient allocation of production factors, and forestry development policies should be formulated and implemented according to local conditions to give play to the functions and advantages of each region. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Asset Securitization Reduce Bank Credit Risk under Policy Factors?. An Empirical Examination of China′s Banking Industry WANG Xiao1,2, LI Jia3,LI Meng-yi4. 2019, 61(9): 82-95.  Abstract ( 119 )   Asset securitization has always been regarded as one of the important tools to transfer and manage credit risk, and policy factors play an important role in the practice of asset securities in China.This paper empirically tests the effect of policy factors on bank credit risk based on the analysis of the mechanism of asset securitization affecting bank credit risk.The research shows that, on the one hand, at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, the policy change from the examination and approval system of asset securitization to the registration system or the filing system has significantly promoted the effect that asset securitization reduces bank credit risk;on the other hand, driven by policy factors, the impact of asset securitization on credit risk varies among different banks′ micro-characteristics:if asset liquidity, capital scale, profitability are lower, and the proportion of risky assets is higher, asset securitization is more conducive to mitigating credit risk,at the same time, compared with listed banks and larger banks, asset securitization has a higher degree of reduction in credit risk of non-listed banks and smaller banks.Therefore, the regulatory authorities should gradually improve the system, optimize the development model of asset securitization, adopt differentiated policies and measures for different banks, and standardize the main acts of asset securitization business, so as to prevent the overuse of the function of asset securitization. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Study of the Calendar Effect of Shenzhen Stock Markets. XIE Shi-qing, ZHU Qian-yu. 2019, 61(9): 96-104.  Abstract ( 80 )   Abstract：The traditional financial theory is based on the efficient market theory and the rational agent hypothesis, while market anomalies like Calendar Effect challenge market efficiency in the real stock market. Based on the EGARCH-M model with a variety of virtual variables, this paper uses Shenzhen Composite Index daily closing price data from December 27, 1996 to December 31, 2016, to investigate calendar effect of logarithmic return rate of Shenzhen Composite Index, including Week Effect, Month Effect, Seasonal Effect and Holiday Effect. The empirical result shows that Shenzhen stock market has positive effect on Tuesday and negative effect on Thursday;the rate of return has high volatility in January but all average daily excess returns in different mouths are neither significant;spring often sees the upward in stock trends, autumn with downwards;with Week Effect controlled, there exists significant positive effect for the holiday excess return in Shenzhen stock market;significant Post-holiday Effect exists in all holidays,while there exists Pre-holiday Effect only in Spring Festival and Qingming Festival. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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“Land Financing”: Value Analysis of Land Finance in Local PPP Financing WANG Feng, CHEN Bing-yu,LIN Xiao-yan. 2019, 61(9): 105-113.  Abstract ( 72 )   The investment return cycle of PPP project is long and the internal rate of return is relatively limited, but the local government of our country has successfully used the PPP mode to finance infrastructure construction.This paper finds that the land revenue of local governments is an important guarantee for the successful financing of PPP projects in both equity and bank credit.Subsequent empirical tests show that the scale of local government′s land revenue is positively correlated with the scale of local government′s investment in PPP, the scale of PPP′s investment in social capital, and the scale of bank′s credit to PPP projects, and after the local government uses the land resources to promote PPP financing, the fund raised by the local government invests more in the field of infrastructure construction.In addition, the above phenomena are more prominent in the central and western regions and in the year of non-official change.Local governments use land finance to promote PPP project financing, which actively promotes urban development, but at the same time, it also leads to the over-inclination of capital allocation structure to infrastructure and other construction areas, linking the risk of repayment of credit funds with the fluctuation of the real estate market, over-investment and duplication of construction during the term of office of local government officials, and so on. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Longitudinal Concurrent Executives and Stock Price Crash Risk: “Embezzlement . Effect”or “Supervisory Effect”? TIAN Kun-ru，TIAN Xue-feng 2019, 61(9): 129-137.  Abstract ( 111 )   Longitudinal concurrent executives are ubiquitous in listed companies in China, which has an important direct impact on corporate financial management and decision-making.In theory, the impact of the longitudinal concurrent executives on the collapse of the company′s stock price is bidirectional, with both “supervisory effect” and “embezzlement effect”. Which effect is the most important?Based on principal-agent theory, this paper takes Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017 as samples. Empirical tests show that companies with longitudinal concurrent executives have higher risk of stock price crash,and longitudinal concurrent executives increase the risk of stock price crash by intensifying the tunneling behavior of major shareholders, which supports the “embezzlement effect” hypothesis;further research finds that when the controlling power of major shareholders is weaker(the proportion of major shareholders is low),and the internal and external supervision mechanism is poorer(single major shareholders, the number of independent directors is small, the proportion of institutional investors is low, and the legal environment is poor), the risk of stock price crash is higher, which logically provides further evidence for the hypothesis of “embezzlement effect” of longitudinal concurrent executives. This paper expands and innovates the related research on longitudinal concurrent executives, and enriches and develops the related research in the field of stock price crash risk.. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Will Management Incentives Inhibit Companies′ Willingness to Buy Insurance?. An Empirical Study of Insurance Purchase Decision of Manufacturing. YANG Bao-hua, HUANG Hong. 2019, 61(9): 138-143.  Abstract ( 70 )   Abstract：Based on the data of management incentives and insurance purchase of A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2010 to 2017, this paper uses Logit model to empirically test the wealth effect and loss aversion effect of three management incentives, namely equity incentives, monetary compensation and on-the-job consumption.The study finds that equity incentive embodies wealth effect in the insurance purchase decision of non-state-owned enterprises, inhibits the insurance purchase intention of enterprises, but has no significant impact on the insurance purchase decision of state-owned enterprises.In-service consumption reflects wealth effect in insurance purchase decision-making of state-owned enterprises, but has no significant impact on non-state-owned enterprises.Monetary remuneration has no significant impact on insurance purchase decisions of different types of enterprises. Therefore, in the new round of income distribution reform of state-owned enterprises, when designing incentive schemes, enterprises should combine incentive and restraint according to the nature of enterprises and incentive methods, so as to prevent enterprises from taking too high risks.. References | Related Articles | Metrics