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24 December 2019, Volume 61 Issue 12 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Evolutionary Game Analysis of Supply Chain Joint Promotion Opportunism TIAN Yong-jie1,2，WANG Wen-ju1,3 2019, 61(12): 1-9.  Abstract ( 359 )   Abstract：There is opportunism in retailers′ joint promotion, which results in the waste of manufacturers′ resources. In this paper, evolutionary game model is used to analyze the evolutionary path in the interactive process of joint promotion between manufacturer and retailer, and the influence of retailer opportunism on the evolutionary path is simulated.The results show that: retailers′ opportunism degree influences participants′ strategy choice in the joint promotion game, and the evolution path of the game is different under different opportunism degrees;the reason for the existence of opportunism is that the retailer obtains additional income through expense withholding, and whether the manufacturer governs opportunism depends on the relationship between the penalty income and the cost of governance and the degree of the retailers′ opportunism:if the opportunism is too large or too small, the manufacturer will choose the strategy of non governance; when retailers′ opportunism is greater than a certain value, the retailer will choose the strategy of non interception; when the opportunism is within a certain threshold, the market will be in a governance dilemma or the manufacturer′s “inaction” state according to whether the penalty income of the manufacturer is greater than the governance cost. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Analysis of the Influence Factors of Rural Online Tourism Service ZHANG Jia-lin1，WANG Jing-tong2，FANG tian-yu3 2019, 61(12): 10-17.  Abstract ( 309 )   Abstract：Rural online tourism is of great significance to cultivate new growth pole of service industry, promote the hematopoietic upgrading of rural economy and promote the harmonious development of “resource culture technology governance”. Its core is the aggregation of service mode and optimization of content.Based on the survey data of online tourism consumption behavior in Hailin Xuexiang, Heilongjiang Province, this paper uses structural equation model method to analyze the relationship among rural online tourism motivation and rural online tourism environment, information interaction between tourists, tourism experience, and uses the model to test the positive relationship between rural online tourism motivation and rural online tourism service experience.In this regard, improving the interactive effect of information among tourists, strengthening the construction of rural tourism services and promoting the novel motivation with the help of new three networks integration have practical effects on improving rural online tourism experience. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Analysis of the Threshold Effect of Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Service Industry Growth:Logical Analysis based on Local Government Achievements HAO Hong-jie1,2,FU Wen-lin1 2019, 61(12): 18-27.  Abstract ( 139 )   Abstract：Among the driving factors of China′s economic growth, the policy factor is more obvious. In view of the problem of total lag caused by the stage and regional heterogeneity of the growth of service industry in China, this paper theoretically analyzes the internal mechanism of fiscal decentralization affecting the growth of regional service industry, and uses panel data of 30 provinces from 1980 to 2016 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the growth of service industry.Theoretical analysis shows that the fiscal decentralization system with Chinese characteristics has a direct impact on the local government achievements. Therefore, in terms of industrial development policy support, in different regions and stages of economic development level, it will choose industries that are more conducive to reflecting the economic growth performance appraisal, and affect the differences and stages of service industry growth regions.The results of empirical analysis show that fiscal decentralization has an important impact on the growth of service industry, and presents nonlinear characteristics; further empirical analysis of panel threshold model shows that there are double thresholds for the growth effect of regional economic development on the fiscal decentralization of service industry;in the low-income stage, the strengthening of fiscal decentralization will hinder the growth of service industry, in the middle-income stage, the fiscal decentralization will affect the service industry and in the high-income stage, fiscal decentralization significantly will promote the growth of service industry. This paper explains the lagging development of China′s service industry and the rapid growth of service industry in some regions for a long time. At the same time, it holds that with the economic development level of most regions approaching or exceeding the high-income threshold, we should expand the rapid growth of the financial decentralization service industry. Therefore, we should further improve the financial decentralization system, improve the assessment mechanism of local officials, and improve the quality of economic development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Controlling Shareholder′s Equity Pledge on Non-efficiency Investment of Enterprise：Based on the Background of Financial Misallocation YANG Song-ling, TIAN Meng-yuan 2019, 61(12): 28-36.  Abstract ( 173 )   Abstract：Controlling shareholders′ equity pledge has been widely used in China′s capital market. This high-risk financing mode will inevitably affect the investment activities and capital allocation efficiency of enterprises.This paper takes A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2009 to 2017 as the research sample, and uses multiple linear regression method to empirically test the impact of controlling shareholders′ equity pledge on the inefficient investment of enterprises.It is found that controlling shareholders′ equity pledge will significantly increase the inefficient investment. Further research finds that the degree of financial misallocation further aggravates the impact of the controlling shareholder′s equity pledge on inefficient investment; financial mismatches in different directions also have a differential impact :when the left misallocation, the controlling shareholder′s equity pledge leads to the problem of over investment, and when the right mismatches, it leads to the problem of insufficient investment.Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the motivation and behavior of shareholders′ equity pledge from the perspective of external supervision and internal governance of enterprises, restrain the encroachment of controlling shareholders, and give full play to the positive role of equity pledge; further deepen the understanding that financial mismatch aggravates systemic financial risk and its differential performance, adjust and optimize the structure of financial resource allocation, and improve investment efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Inter-provincial Knowledge Spillover on Innovation Quality in China′s High-tech Industry：An Analysis of Threshold Effect based on Knowledge Absorptive Capacity FAN De-cheng, LI Sheng-nan 2019, 61(12): 37-45.  Abstract ( 106 )   In order to analyze the impact mechanism of knowledge spillover on innovation quality, this paper uses threshold regression technology, taking the absorptive capacity as the threshold variable, and uses 2009-2016 China′s inter-provincial panel data of high-tech industry, to empirically explore the non-linear impact of inter provincial knowledge spillover on innovation quality, as well as the threshold effect and time-space change of knowledge absorptive capacity.The results show that: the provincial knowledge spillover of high-tech industry in China has a significant non-linear effect on innovation quality, and there is a double threshold effect with knowledge absorptive capacity as the threshold variable;with the improvement of the threshold of absorptive capacity, the promotion effect of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on innovation quality of high-tech industry is gradually enhanced; the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of absorptive capacity is obvious in all regions of China, and R&D personnel, financial deepening degree and enterprise scale have significantly positive impact on innovation quality of high-tech industry.By revealing the threshold effect of knowledge absorption capacity to improve the quality of innovation, it is suggested that all regions should focus on the cultivation, introduction and better performance of corresponding talents, build and improve the corresponding system, mechanism and environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Non-coordinated Development of Virtual Economy and the Industrial Investment Profitability of Enterprises: Heterogeneity and Influence Mechanism MA Hong1, HOU Gui-sheng1,MENG Fan-bin2 2019, 61(12): 46-56.  Abstract ( 102 )   Combined with the special institutional environment of China, this paper focuses on the impact of the non-coordinated development of virtual economy on the industrial investment profitability of non-financial enterprises, and analyzes the relationship between them in-depth from two aspects of heterogeneity and impact mechanism.The results show that: first of all, the non-coordinated development of virtual economy has significantly inhibited the industrial investment profitability of non-financial enterprise and compared with R&D investment, this inhibition effect is more significant in fixed asset investment.Secondly, under the influence of property right nature (micro factor), industry competition degree (meso factor) and regional financial environment (macro factor), the inhibitive effect of non coordinated development of virtual economy on the industrial investment profitability of enterprise has significant heterogeneity.Third, the further study of the influence mechanism shows that the decline of the scale of industrial investment of non-financial enterprises and the increase of their preference for financial channel profit are the possible channels for the non-coordinated development of virtual economy to restrain the profit-making ability of enterprise industrial investment.In view of the negative impact of “getting rid of the real to the virtual” on the industrial investment of non-financial enterprises, we should deepen the reform of the financial system, guide the virtual capital to help the high-quality development of the real economy, promote the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, and improve the internal governance mechanism and supervision mechanism of enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Different Dominant Structure of Supply Chain on the Market Integration of Differentiated Competitive Manufacturers CUI Jing 2019, 61(12): 57-65.  Abstract ( 123 )   Abstract：Although enterprises can reduce competition through Mergers and Acquisitions(M&A), different dominant structure of enterprises in supply chain may lead to M&A can not give full play to its market advantage. Based on the supply chain composed of two differentiated competitive manufacturers and one retailer, in the market competition and market M&A situation, this paper constructs the supply chain game model dominated by each manufacturer and retailer respectively, and investigates the market M&A strategy of differentiated competitive manufacturers and the impact of different dominant structure on M&A value.The results show that: in different situations, the member enterprises in the leading position of the supply chain can always obtain more profits through the implementation of high price strategy;the market M&A strategy of differentiated competitive manufacturers can effectively improve the profit level of supply-side enterprises, but it will also lead to the negative impact of double marginal effects on retailers and supply chain system, and reduce the total demand of products;when the manufacturer has the dominant power, it has greater motivation to implement M&A strategy, while the retailer in the dominant position can alleviate the adverse impact of upstream monopoly on the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Periodical Influence of Trade Liberalization on Enterprise Innovation ZHAO Can1, LIU De-xue2 ZHAO Can1, LIU De-xue2 2019, 61(12): 66-75.  Abstract ( 100 )   Since China′s accession to the WTO, China′s opening up has changed from the stage of adapting to and following the international trade regulations to the stage of overall opening up and leading the trend. Based on the background of China′s gradual opening up, this paper takes the patent data of China′s A-share listed companies in 2001-2016 as the research sample, and studies the phased characteristics of the impact of trade liberalization on enterprise innovation on the basis of considering the industrial interconnection.The results show that: the impact of trade liberalization on enterprise innovation has significant stage characteristics,specifically, in the transitional stage of China′s accession to WTO, trade liberalization in this industry and upstream industry respectively have inhibition and promotion effects on enterprise innovation, while trade liberalization in downstream industry has significant inhibition effects;in the stage of all-round opening up, trade liberalization in this industry has a significant inhibiting effect on enterprise innovation, while trade liberalization in upstream and downstream industries has a significant promoting effect on enterprise innovation,that is to say, the trade liberalization of this industry will always restrain the innovation of enterprises, the trade liberalization of upstream industry will promote the innovation of enterprises, and the influence of trade liberalization of downstream industry on the innovation of enterprises presents the “U-shaped” feature of first restraining and then promoting.This shows that the relationship between trade liberalization and enterprise innovation is not immutable, but closely related to the stage of opening up and the pattern of economic competition at home and abroad. Therefore, trade policies should be adjusted in a timely and targeted manner. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Structure Characteristics and Correlation Effect of Value-added Trade and Anti-dumping Network:From the Perspective of Social Network Analysis QIAO Xiao-yong, WU Xiao-xue，LI Xiang-yu 2019, 61(12): 76-86.  Abstract ( 141 )   In order to measure and analyze the real trade benefits of a country and the degree of trade friction with other countries under the global value chain, this paper uses the relevant data of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) and the World Bank′s Anti-dumping Database (GAD), and constructs two kinds of networks, namely, value-added trade and anti-dumping, to explore the structural changes of value-added trade network and anti-dumping network based on the social network Network analysis, and uses QAP method to test the hypothesis of the correlation effect between the two networks.The results show that more trade links between economies in the value-added trade network can effectively inhibit the emergence of anti-dumping relations, but the control of network information in the high-end value-added trade network can make countries occupy the leading position in Launching Anti-dumping; the comparative analysis shows that the trade flow under the traditional accounting system is still an important reason for the occurrence of anti-dumping litigation; the topological structure analysis of the network shows that China′s position in the value-added trade network is constantly improving, but the participation in the high-end value chain field is insufficient. In addition, the research considers that the value-added trade network is malleable, and the trade friction can be dealt with by adjusting the network structure. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of China′s Import Trade Structure on Industrial Total Factor Productivity LIU Wei1, DING Yi-bing2,GUAN Ran3 2019, 61(12): 87-96.  Abstract ( 136 )   Through the construction of endogenous growth model, the paper investigates the impact of import complexity on TFP, and measures the import complexity and import density of China, and empirically tests the impact of China′s import trade structure on TFP of industrial industry.The results show that: in the world, the increase of China′s import complexity promotes the growth of TFP and technological progress, but has no obvious impact on technological efficiency;The increase in China′s import complexity has not increased the total factor productivity and technological progress, but has had a negative impact on technical efficiency;China′s import density has a positive impact on TFP both in the world and along the “Belt and Road” country.Therefore, China should rely on the domestic consumer market to focus on adjusting the import trade structure of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, and expand the manufacturing import of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, thus promoting the total factor productivity of China′s industrial sector. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Overconfidence, Dividend Demand and Cash Dividend Distribution：An Analysis based on Behavioral Financial Dividend Theory JIA Hong-wen,MENG Li-li 2019, 61(12): 97-106.  Abstract ( 141 )   The development and application of cash dividend in China is relatively special. Based on the theory of management overconfidence and dividend catering, this paper introduces the behavioral factors such as management overconfidence and investor dividend demand to establish Logit model and multiple linear regression model, and analyzes the relationship between behavioral factors and cash dividend distribution.The empirical results show that the cash dividend distribution of listed companies in China has irrational characteristics, in which the overconfidence of the management is an important reason for the low level of cash dividend distribution of listed companies, and the limited rational dividend catering behavior of the management results in the unstable characteristics of the direction and intensity of cash dividend payment to some extent. Therefore, the management should continue to deepen the understanding of irrational decision-making behavior, establish a good decision-making mechanism, ensure the proper procedure and standardization of decision-making process, and constantly improve the transparency and stability of dividend policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Applicability of China′s Policy Agricultural Insurance in Bank Insurance Interaction： An Analysis from the Perspective of Mortgage Guarantee Replacement 2019, 61(12): 107-115.  Abstract ( 79 )   Abstract：This paper analyzes the theoretical basis of bank insurance interaction and the internal logic of its impact on credit rationing, demonstrates the possible path for bank insurance interaction to play the role of mortgage guarantee replacement in agricultural insurance,summarizes the current situation of China′s Bank Insurance interactive pilot, and puts forward the necessary conditions and improvement measures for policy based agricultural insurance to effectively alleviate the credit rationing of farmers combined with the macro data and micro survey data.The research shows that the level of policy based agricultural insurance is low and the scope of insurance is single, the relationship between insurance compensation and risk is weak, the mechanism of information sharing and risk sharing is not fully established, and the bank does not have the absolute control right of the first loss payer;the basic terms, risk relevance and advanced terms of policy insurance cannot fit basic conditions and internal logic of bank mortgage guarantee role of insurance interaction in agricultural insurance.Therefore, index insurance should be taken as the basic agricultural insurance type of bank insurance interaction, and the first payor of insurance should be the bank, so as to realize the efficient information sharing and risk sharing among the subjects of bank insurance interaction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Stock Reverse Trading Strategy and Its Effectiveness Test based on Prospect Theory CHEN Zhi-ying1, CHEN Miao-zhen2, XU Lin2 2019, 61(12): 116-125.  Abstract ( 119 )   Aiming at the limitation of stock investment “momentum strategy” in the application of China′s stock market due to the irrationality of investors, a new “anchoring disposal” stock reverse trading strategy is constructed based on the prospect theory of behavioral finance.The empirical results show that the strategy can achieve significant positive returns in the short term, medium term and long term, which confirms the universal existence of the reversal effect of China′s stock market; the strategy has higher returns than the traditional momentum trading strategy, and the return after deducting the transaction costs is still higher than the market return. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Characteristics of China′s Population Structure and Economic Efficiency, Economic Transformation：An Analysis based on Panel Data of China′s Regions from 1992 to 2017 WANG Yu1，ZHANG Zi-ran2 2019, 61(12): 126-135.  Abstract ( 119 )   Different from developed countries, China′s population structure in the middle-income stage is characterized by “aging and fewer children”.Based on the panel data of China′s regions from 1992 to 2017, this paper uses the extended MRW model to analyze the impact of the double superposition of “aging” and “fewer children” on economic efficiency.The results show that the comprehensive influence of “aging and fewer children” on China′s economic efficiency is negative, and the population structure of “aging and fewer children” has a negative impact on China′s transformation of economic development mode and economic growth power, which is not conducive to the continuation of China′s transformation from material capital driven to human capital driven in per capita GDP level, and promotes the premature emergence of supply side structure deceleration in China′s economy. The logic to promote the smooth transformation of China′s economy should be to first improve the income level, then transform the driving factors; during the transitional period, maintain the original economic growth momentum, ensure the per capita income level to enter the ranks of high-income countries; moderately carry out the accumulation of material capital, encourage childbearing and improve the per capita human capital accumulation level, improve the per capita human capital stock, and make it continuously increase speed, so as to realize the smooth transition and handover of two kinds of power. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Non-linear Influence of the Change of Agricultural Labor Flow Mode on Agricultural Production Efficiency：An Empirical Test based on Panel Threshold Regression Model ZHONG Cheng-lin1,ZHOU Feng1,HU Xue-ping2 2019, 61(12): 136-144.  Abstract ( 142 )   In order to summarize the evolution law of agricultural labor flow pattern and analyze the impact of the change of agricultural labor flow pattern on agricultural production efficiency in the process of urbanization, this paper, guided by the theory of rural-urban migration of agricultural labor in development economics, uses the relevant data of 30 provinces in China from 1991 to 2016, and comprehensively uses Malmquist index method and threshold panel regression model to test it. The results show that: (1) in the whole process of urbanization, the mode of agricultural labor flow will undergo two changes, one is “large-scale transformation” (the transition from one-way migration of scattered towns to one-way migration of large-scale towns) and the other is “two-way transformation” (the transformation from large-scale one-way rural-urban migration to two-way rural-urban and urban-rural mobility)，and the critical range of urbanization rate corresponding to the first transformation is 31%-40%, while that corresponding to the second transformation is 55.2%-63.2%.(2) on the whole, the change of agricultural labor flow pattern has effectively promoted the growth of all factor agricultural production efficiency, but compared with the first change of agricultural labor flow pattern, the second change has a weaker marginal role in promoting all factor agricultural production efficiency;through further analysis, it is found that the decline of the capture ability of scale efficiency is the structural root of the above differences,however, the factors,such as China′s farmland property rights system is not perfect, the land property rights trading market system is not perfect, the transfer of farmland between families and the centralization process of families to the new agricultural operation subject are blocked, the scale of production and operation cannot achieve synchronous expansion, and the continuous decline of agricultural production system′s ability to capture scale efficiency, are the internal cause of the above differences.According to the stage characteristics of agricultural labor flow mode, we should implement differentiated agricultural technology innovation policy and agricultural land transfer intervention mode. References | Related Articles | Metrics