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12 November 2019, Volume 61 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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The Boomerang Effect of Online Low Discount: The Moderation Effect of Product Price and Category Interaction DONG Xiao-song,LIU Ting-jie 2019, 61(11): 1-11.  Abstract ( 169 )   Low discount boomerang effect is an important factor affecting consumers′ purchase decisions. Some businesses think that price reduction is an effective way to improve product sales, so that the actual effect goes against their wishes.Based on the data of 3626 users′ consumption behavior in China Telecom Wing payment platform, this paper empirically tests the boomerang effect of low discount on the sales of non necessities of life, and the moderation effect of online environment, product price and search products on the relationship between them.It is found that the boomerang effect of low discount exists widely in the online and offline environment of non essential consumption. Within the 15% discount level, there is a significant “U” shaped curve relationship between discount rate and product sales, while the online environment significantly strengthens the boomerang effect; both the product price and the product type significantly weaken the online boomerang effect of low discount, and the research conclusion remains unchanged after considering the self selection problem of the research sample.These conclusions broaden the research boundary and application scope of the relationship between low discount level and product sales, enrich the theoretical research on boomerang effect of low discount, and provide new empirical evidence for the price promotion strategy and channel selection strategy of marketing managers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Economic Consequences of Trade Credit Reallocation under the Background of Supply-side Structural Reform: “Icing on the Cake” or “Timely Help” WANG Zhen-jie,LI Zhen-zhen 2019, 61(11): 12-22.  Abstract ( 114 )   This paper takes A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2017 as the research sample to investigate the economic consequences of commercial credit reallocation in the supply side structural reform-whether it is “icing on the cake” for the strong enterprises or “timely help” for the weak enterprises.The results show that: on the whole, the reallocation of commercial credit mainly shows the effect of “timely help”, the commercial credit resources mainly flow from the strong enterprises to the weak ones, the weak ones are the biggest beneficiaries of the reallocation of commercial credit, and this effect is sustainable in the supply-side structural reform. At the micro level, commercial credit reallocation can correct the distortion of credit resources in initial allocation period, which shows that on the one hand, the outflow of commercial credit from the strong enterprises reduces the free cash flow, inhibits the generation of agency problems, and on the other hand, the weak enterprises use the inflow of commercial credit to ease the financing constraints.At the macro level, the reallocation of commercial credit promotes resources to flow from industries with low returns to industries with high returns. Further analysis shows that the executives of the weak enterprises seek the help of the strong enterprises by means of the informal system such as the identity of “red top businessman” and the constantly improving external environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Why Natural Resources Become A Curse: “Grabbing Hand” under Market Distortion——An Empirical Test from the Perspective of Officials′ Promotion Incentive Caused by “Chinese Decentralization” XIE Jin 2019, 61(11): 23-31.  Abstract ( 116 )   This paper introduces the distortion of resource market into the “resource curse” hypothesis, discusses the proposition of “how resource abundance leads to resource dependence” from the perspective of “Chinese decentralization” and its promotion incentive, and empirically tests it based on the 2009-2016 provincial panel data of China.The results show that: the distorted level of resource market regulates the relationship between resource abundance and resource dependence, which is an important condition for resource dependence; the promotion system arrangement in the form of championship and the promotion assessment standard in the form of economic performance are important motives for local governments to distort resource market; the distorted resource market in the areas with abundant resources helps to stimulate the short-term economic growth and officials′ political achievements will hinder growth in the long run and produce a “Curse” effect. Therefore, the distortion of incentive design in government governance is the root cause of China′s “resource curse”. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Employment Effect of Agglomeration Economy: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence TIAN Zheng-jie, DUAN Zhi-min, DONG Lu 2019, 61(11): 32-43.  Abstract ( 91 )   Employment is an important issue related to people′s livelihood. It is of great practical significance to deeply understand the role of agglomeration economy in promoting employment.On the basis of constructing a dynamic growth model of employment, which includes specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration, this paper uses the data of Chinese industrial enterprises and regional input-output data to test the impact of two types of agglomeration economy on urban manufacturing employment, and explains the difference between them.The results show that the intra industry spillover effect of specialization agglomeration restrains the employment growth of urban manufacturing industry, and the inter industry spillover effect of diversification agglomeration has a significant positive effect, while the industrial correlation effect is the main mechanism;the intra industry spillover effect has a negative impact on the employment growth of different industries and regions, while the inter industry spillover effect has a heterogeneous impact due to the differences in market environment, technology level and industrial chain of different industries and regions;at the micro level, compared with specialized agglomeration, the employment growth effect of diversified agglomeration is mainly realized by promoting the establishment of enterprises and expanding the scale of small and medium-sized enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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PPP Credit Enhancement Framework Effect in China: A Theoretical Analysis of Risk Profit and Loss Balance XU Zhen-yu1,CHEN Heng1,LI Qing-jun2 2019, 61(11): 44-52.  Abstract ( 162 )   China′s PPP credit enhancement framework effect is a result of risk profit and loss balance. The governance goal of PPP credit enhancement framework effect is to pay attention to the positive context to influence the generation of PPP credit enhancement framework effect, properly control the risk, and then obtain the risk premium.The framework effect experience of China′s PPP credit enhancement is that there have been three positive changes in the version of PPP credit enhancement. It has grasped three links: government credit enhancement supply, SPV credit enhancement results, and mixed governance to control risks. It has realized three risk profit and loss balances: strengthening positive risk profit, strengthening risk-free profit and reducing negative risk profit.The mechanism of PPP credit enhancement framework effect is that the decision-maker′s choice reflects the continuous incentive of incomplete contract, the loss control shows the psychological account establishment or opening and closing of risk aversion and risk premium. According to the mathematical equilibrium analysis, the economic surplus appears after the risk premium hedges the risk loss. The opening and closing of the psychological account depends on the improvement of the development expectation and the reasonable growth of the moderate consumption. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Regional Effect of Monetary Policy and Dynamic Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading in China SHAO Cui-li1,2 2019, 61(11): 79-87.  Abstract ( 99 )   Under the background of “new normal”, promoting the optimization and upgrading of China′s industrial structure is also one of the objectives of monetary policy regulation. However, due to the obvious regional differences in China′s economic and social development, the traditional monetary policy is difficult to achieve the expected results. How can monetary policy guide industrial upgrading and take into account the differences in regional economic development? Based on the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017, this paper uses SV-TVP-FAVAR model to test the guidance and regional effect of China′s monetary policy on industrial structure upgrading.The empirical results show that: on the whole, both quantitative and price monetary policies can have an effective impact on the industrial structure of different economic zones, but the regional differences in regulation are large; the expanding price monetary policy tends to have a negative effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure, while the expanding quantitative monetary policy tends to have a positive effect;the effect of quantitative monetary policy on industrial added value is weaker than that of price monetary policy, but no matter what kind of monetary policy is used, it cannot have a long-term and lasting impact on industrial structure; interest rate channel is the most likely cause of regional effect of monetary policy.Therefore, the relevant economic policies to promote the optimization of industrial structure should be combined with the development level of different regions and the differences of policy transmission channels to maximize the effect of monetary policy implementation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Industrial Structure Service, Production Efficiency and “Structural Slowdown”： From the Perspective of New Structural Economics SHEN Yang, GUO Jun-hua 2019, 61(11): 88-99.  Abstract ( 79 )   According to the logic of “endowment structure-industrial structure-production efficiency-economic growth” in new structural economics, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of “structural slowdown” caused by the service of industrial structure in China from three aspects: the cyclic accumulation of structural change, the demand of endowment structure and comparative advantage, and explains the compensation mechanism for the loss of service efficiency of industrial structure from the perspectives of soft and hard infrastructure, productive service industry and human capital.Then, the panel data of 275 prefecture level cities from 2003 to 2016 are used to test the above conclusions through simultaneous equation model and threshold regression.The results show that the change process of industrial structure from industrialization to service presents a “inverted U-shaped” effect on production efficiency, which first promotes and then suppresses, and through production efficiency, the economy presents a change trend from “structural acceleration” to “structural deceleration”; on the whole, productive service industry cannot compensate for the efficiency loss caused by industrial structure service, but it has a positive effect on the efficiency compensation of provincial capital and the sub provincial capital city; hard infrastructure, marketization and government intervention can compensate for the loss of efficiency in the process of industrial structure service to varying degrees, but human capital cannot compensate for the loss of efficiency.The above conclusions have policy implications: in the case of low labor productivity in China′s industrial sector, we should adhere to the implementation of the “industrialization” strategy, change from increasing industrial output value to increasing industrial productivity, in order to compensate for the loss of production efficiency caused by the service-oriented industrial structure. In addition, the internal structure of service industry should be inclined to productive service industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mixing Measure and Time-varying Drive of China′s Financial Stability LI Peng1，ZHANG Run-chi2,3，MAO De-yong4 2019, 61(11): 107-118.  Abstract ( 110 )   Financial stability is an important prerequisite for the stable operation of macro-economy. Based on the macro-economic and financial operation data from 2006 to 2017, the financial stability index(FSCI) of China is constructed by using the mixing vector autoregression model(MFVAR) to measure and evaluate the financial stability of China, and the implicit driving factors are analyzed by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR).The results show that: in general, the operation of China′s financial system tendes to be stable, but before the third quarter of 2010, the operation of the financial system fluctuated violently, constantly changing between financial imbalance and financial instability, and then tended to be relatively stable;at the same time, it is also found that the stock market is the main source of financial instability in China, while the banking system is the ballast of maintaining financial stability; further research shows that the total scale of social financing has a great impact on financial stability in the short term, while the amount of money supply has a sustained impact on financial stability in both the short and long term.The meaning of the above conclusions is that it is very important to maintain the financial stability of our country and ensure the stable operation of the stock market. The financial policy should focus on the total scale of social financing in the short term and anchor the money supply in the long term. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Identification of China′s Optimal Monetary Policy Proxy Variable：An Analysis based on Monetary Policy Response and Transmission WU Peng-fei1,DAI Guo-qiang2 2019, 61(11): 119-130.  Abstract ( 103 )   Choosing an effective proxy variable to represent the monetary policy position of the central bank is the premise and basis for the research of monetary policy.On the basis of SVAR model, this paper compares six policy variables from two aspects of monetary policy′s response mode and transmission effect to real economic change, in order to identify the optimal agent variable of monetary policy in China.The results show that: (1) the quantitative variable is still the main target of the central bank in macro-control, in which the RMB loan scale meets all conditions and is the optimal agent variable of monetary policy.(2) the price variable can make a significant response to the inflation shock, but not to the output shock; the change of the price variable has no significant impact on the inflation, but has a significant impact on the output.It can be seen that the Central Bank of China does not take the interest rate index as the main means of regulating and controlling the economy, but the change of interest rate can affect the actual output; there is a certain practical basis for the “13th Five Year Plan” to promote the transformation of monetary policy from quantity oriented to price oriented. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Short Selling Improve the Earnings Quality of Listed Companies? Quasi Natural Experiment based on Refinancing System LIU Ting-li,JIANG Ying 2019, 61(11): 131-140.  Abstract ( 97 )   The legalization of short selling in China′s securities market has been nearly ten years. However, the existence of early short selling constraints makes the mechanism controversial on the governance of listed companies.Based on the quasi natural experimental window of refinancing system, this paper takes A-share listed companies in China from 2014 to 2016 as the research sample, uses the tendency score matching method to eliminate the sample selection bias, tests the impact of the deterrence effect of short selling on earnings quality through the earnings response coefficient model under the condition that the constraints of short selling are greatly relieved, and analyzes the different property rights and equity effect and difference of influence under structure.The results show that the mitigation of short selling has a positive external governance effect, and the potential short selling opportunity has a typical deterrent effect in advance, which can effectively inhibit earnings manipulation and improve earnings quality; but for companies with different property rights and ownership structure, the governance effect of short selling mechanism has different impacts on earnings quality. The above conclusions provide different perspectives for the test of the governance effect of short selling on listed companies, and provide adjustment ideas and directions for the promotion and improvement of the system of refinancing securities. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Implicit Capital Cost, Bank Loan and Capital Use Efficiency：Based on the Perspective of Enterprise Rent-seeking ZHAO Can1,YIN Xiao-jiang1,CAO Wei2 2019, 61(11): 141-152.  Abstract ( 97 )   Under the background of financial repression, Chinese enterprises are still in a quasi monopoly credit market in which capital supply is in short supply. The rent-seeking behavior of enterprises to obtain credit resources has become the implicit capital cost of enterprises.Based on the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2008 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the implicit capital cost and resource allocation efficiency in bank credit decision-making.The results show that the rent-seeking activity of enterprises is a implicit capital cost in the process of bank loan allocation. Whether state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, the rent-seeking activity of enterprises can help to obtain more bank loans, but its efficiency is very different.Specifically, restricted by the resource endowment of the enterprise itself, the bank loan obtained by the state-owned enterprise through rent-seeking reduces the investment efficiency, while the bank loan obtained by the private enterprise through rent-seeking improves the investment efficiency.The conclusion shows that financial repression hinders the transaction through explicit contract, and corporate rent-seeking becomes a recessive contract in bank credit decision-making. This recessive contract is not an effective supplement to explicit contract, and even leads to a high leverage ratio of some enterprises, which will damage the effective allocation of resources. References | Related Articles | Metrics