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Features of Carbon Emission and Peak Prediction in Typical Chinese Cities:
A Revalidation based on “Decoupling” and EKC Hypothesis
QIU Li-xin, YUAN Sai
2018, 60(7):
50-58.
Taking Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Chongqing and Guangzhou, the eight low carbon pilot cities as research objects to analyze decoupling state of economic scale and regional carbon emissions in typical cities from “the 10th Five-Year Plan” to “the 12th Five-Year Plan ” through Tapio decoupling model. The results show that the carbon intensity of eight cities decreased year by year (strong decoupling);during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, in addition to Beijing and Qingdao, other cities are weak decoupling, which means that the total amount of carbon emissions continued to increase as the economy grew, but the growth rate is lower than that of economy. Except for some certain cities remain volatile, economic growth has shifted from extensive to intensive. The paper further uses lag phase tool variable method to study the effect mechanism of eight factors, such as economic scale and industrial structure on regional carbon emissions; the carbon emission EKC hypothesis is tenable in typical cities (inverted U-shape),and the adjustment of industrial structure and the expansion of foreign trade have not played an effective role in reducing regional carbon emissions; the promotion of urbanization and optimization of energy consumption structure are obviously beneficial to the carbon emission reduction in typical cities, while the effects of population and technical innovation are not obvious; at present, all cities have not crossed the inflection point and are expected to peak around 2023.
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